商品房价格影响因素的分析与研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 22 商品房价格影响因素的分析与研究 摘要：我国房地产市场发展迅速，房价飞速上升着。人们对于商品房价格的影响因素进行了大量的分析与研究，希望解释房价的飞速上涨，而对于房价与地价的关系，学者们各抒己见，有人认为前者决定后者，有的人认为后者决定前者，还有的人认为二者相互影响，互相决定双方，许多科研人员也通过大量的综合分析，试图对未来房价作出合理的预测。本文先基于10个影响房价的因素建立了主成份分析模型，通过主成份分析确定各个影响因素对房价的影响程度，再利用向量自回归模型，通过一系列检验来分析房价与地价之间的因果关系，最后使用自回归滑动平均模型，对未来的房价做出预测。通过综合分析，寻找房价上涨的原因，并提出现实的意见。 关键词：房地产； 主成份分析模型； 向量自回归模型；房价预测 Analysis and Research on the influence factors of commercial housing price Abstract: Chinas real estate market is developing rapidly, and the price is rising fast. people have a lot of analysis and Research on the factors affecting the price of commercial housing, hoping to explain the rapid rise in prices,as for the relationship between housing price and land price. Scholars have expressed their opinions, some people think that the former determines the latter,Some people think that the latter decides the former, some people think that they have Mutual influence. Many researchers also try to make a reasonable forecast of housing price through a large number of comprehensive analysis.In this paper, the principal component analysis model is established based on 10 factors that affect the house price,Determining the influence factor on the impact of housing prices through the principal component analysis.Then analyzing the causal relationship between the price and land price through the vector auto regression model .Finally, forecasting the future of housing price through Autoregressive moving average model.looking for the reason about the rise of house price and putting forward reasonable suggestions through comprehensive analysis. . Keywords: real estate ；component analysis model ；vector autoregressive model ；prediction of house price 一、引言 1998年起，国务院实施了新的房屋分配制度，房地产开发商、购房者需求者，买房投机者以及政府都投身到房地产市场来，房地产市场开始繁荣起来[1]。 我们看到房价也快速的飞涨着，虽然人们消费水平正不断的提高，但大部分人成为了名副其实的房奴，努力工作着为了还清巨额房贷。飞速上涨的房价已经超过了老百姓的可承受范围，这会引起一系列社会问题。 房地产为GDP的增长作出了重要的贡献，随着中国步入小康社会，居民对于住房的需求不断提高，出现了供不应求的社会现象。 本文对于房价的影响因素的分析建立了主成份分析模型，通过主成份分析确定各个影响因素对房价的影响程度；对于房价与地价之间