2014 全球战略展望.docxVIP

December 2, 2013 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H M OR G AN S T A N LE Y R E S E A R C H GLO B AL S TR A TE G Y TE AM 2014 Global Strategy Outlook Fertile Soils, Rising Divergences Morgan Stanley Co. LLC Jason Drah o ? Matthew Hornbach ? Sivan Mahadeva n ? Adam S. Park er ? Rashique Rahman ? Vishwanath Tirupattur ? “We’re farming the fertile soils on the slopes of the volcano, even though it has already started to smoke.” Morgan Stanley Co. International plc+ Paolo Batori ? Investor at a Morgan Stanley Research Conference, 2004 Neil McLeish ? Hans Redeker ? Our strategic allocation remains equities over bonds, and corporate bonds over government bonds. The global expansion will remain intact per our Economics team’s baseline, and equities and corporate bonds are not overvalued, either outright or relative to government bonds. With DM risk asset returns lower but still positive, the trend towards the ‘fertile soils’ of alpha that started in 2013 will continue (see Key Investment Ideas, page 3). Graham Secker ? Andrew Sheets ? Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Jonathan Garner ? Viktor Hjort ? MS Asset Class Views (6 months) – + + However, we believe we’re in the latter half of the current cycle. The current equity and credit bull markets are nearing their fifth anniversary and face a transition from a liquidity-driven world to one that is more growth-dependent. Stronger growth will support profits but also boost volatility, especially in government bond markets. This is the ‘smoking volcano’ that will periodically impact markets in 2014. Global Asset Allocation Equities Credit Government Bonds Cash Equities – US Europe Japan AxJ Challenging regional transitions will provide alpha opportunities. In Europe, disinflation and richer valuations make differentiation more important, and we downgrade European equity and credit markets to Neutral overall. Despite challenges, we expect Japan to make further progress; we remain bearish J