气候变暖下浙江早稻高温热害的时空分布特征.docVIP

气候变暖下浙江早稻高温热害的时空分布特征 目录 TOC \o 1-9 \h \z \u 目录 1 正文 1 文1：气候变暖下浙江早稻高温热害的时空分布特征 1 0、 引言 2 1、 资料与方法 3 2、 结果分析 5 3、 结论 9 文2：广西降水时空分布特征 9 1降水的时间分布特征 10 2降水的地域分布特征 11 参考文摘引言： 12 原创性声明（模板） 13 文章致谢（模板） 14 正文 气候变暖下浙江早稻高温热害的时空分布特征 文1：气候变暖下浙江早稻高温热害的时空分布特征 Abstract：　Based on the historical observation data ( 1961-2010) of 42 meteorological statio in Zhejiang Province， the statistical analysis method and the invee distance weight interpolation method were used to study the spatial-temporal features of heat injury on early rice in Zhejiang Province and further disaster hazard zonation. The results showed that the areas exposed to serious heat injury were mainly concentrated in the middle and south of Zhejiang， heat injury in Yongkang， Jinhua， Lanxi and Lishui was more serious due to the non-circulation of air and the accumulation of heat in Jinqu Basin， Yongkang Basin and a series of basi of Lishui area， while heat injury in eastern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province was generally light due to frequent typhoon weather in summer. Heat injury increased significantly over the past decades， showing a particular rise in both the frequency and inteity of high-temperature events over the 21 st century. Taking the average annual inteity and temporal trend of heat injury into account， the level of heat-injury risk was higher in the middle and south of Zhejiang Province， but lower in the coastal areas。 Keyword：　Zhejiang; early rice; heat injury; spatial difference; risk assessment; 0、 引言 我国是世界上最大的水稻生产国和消费国， 60%以上的人口以水稻为主食[1-2].水稻产量的稳定增长是保障我国乃至世界粮食安全的关键[3-4].然而， 水稻生长发育过程对极端高温事件尤为敏感[5-6].近50年来， 我国长江流域发生重大水稻高温热害事件6次， 其中， 2003年的全流域受灾面积保守估计达3000万hm2， 损失稻谷产量5180万t[7].浙江省是地处长江中下游地区的水稻种植大省.在全球气候变暖[8]背景下， 浙江省夏季高温频繁， 已严重威胁该地区水稻的安全生产[9].评估浙江省水稻高温热害危险度有助于农业部门因地制宜采取合理的适应措施， 从而减轻灾害损失、保障浙江省的粮食安全与社会稳定。 1960年以来浙江省以双季稻种植为主[10]， 其中早稻生长发育的敏感期正处于夏季副热带高压控制期间[11-12]， 极易遭受极端高温事件影响.已有学者基于高温事件出现次数和天数开展浙江省早稻高温热害发生规律的研究[13-15].然而高温热害危险性除与发生次数和天数有关外， 高温胁迫强度也是重要的衡量因素[4，6]， 将发生频次和强度