13 Population and Poverty Reduction分析和总结分析和总结.docxVIP

13 Population Reduction and Poverty Population and Poverty Reduction 人口和减少贫困 Boosting Growth to Lift People out of Poverty 加速经济增长,使人民摆脱贫困 A paradox of the second half of the 20 th century is that the wou ld population underwent unprecedented growth-from 2.5 billion in 195 0 to more than 6 billion in 2001-even as the population growth rate was declining. The decline was triggered largely by a drop in fertil ity rates. Between 1852 and 2001 fertility rates fell from 5.1 to 2. 7 births per woman. Thus while the population grew by 1.5 percent a year in 1980-2001, the growth rate is expected to drop to 1 percent in 2001-2005.20 世纪后半叶曾有这样一种看似矛盾的说法:即使人口增长率在不断下降,世界人口仍将经历一次空前的增长,即从 1950 年的 25 亿增至 2001 年的 60 亿以上.人口增长率的降低的主要原因是出生率的降低.在 1852 至 2001 年间,出生率由每名妇女生产 5.1 个婴儿降至 2.7 个婴儿。因此，在 1980－2001 年间，尽管人口以每年 1.5％的速率递增，在 2001－2005 年间，增长率将会降至 1%。 During the transition from high fertility and rapid population growth to lower fertility and slower growth, the working-age populat ion expand relative to the dependent (younger and older) population, opening a demographic window of opportunity for economic growth. Co untries can take advantage of this one-time opportunity if they inve st appropriately in their human an physical capital and create emplo yment opportunities for youth and for those who have not been workin g for wages. Several countries in East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a few Latin America, such as Brazil and Mex ico, have done so. Bur South Asian countries that are now moving int o the later stage of their transition to low fertility may not benef it from the demographic transition if they do not encourage growth, investment, and human capital development. The demographic window fo r these countries will close within a generation. 从高出生率的人口快速增长期到低出生率的人口慢速增长期的过渡期间，相对于被抚养人口（老幼 人口），工作年龄人口扩大了。从人口统计学的角度来看，这为经济增长提供 了机会。国家可以通过对人力和实物资本的适当投资以及为青年人和非雇用人 口创造就业机会来利用好这个一次性的机会。一些国家已经这样做了，比如东 亚的韩国，泰国以及拉丁美洲的巴西和墨西哥。但是，如果不鼓励经济发展， 投资及人力资本的发展，那些现在进入低出生率过渡期后期的南亚