乡村振兴视角下赣州市农产品冷链物流需求预测.pdfVIP

Logistics Sci-Tech December，2022 （the second half） 物流科技 2022 年 12 月下 ● ● 冷链物流 文章编号：1002-3100（2022）20-0155-04 乡村振兴视角下 赣州市农产品冷链物流需求预测 On the Forecast of Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Agricultural Products in Ganzhou City from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization 陈佳园 （江西理工大学 商学院，江西 南昌 330044） CHEN Jiayuan （Commercial College of Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Nanchang 330044, China） 摘 要：在乡村振兴的大背景下，人们对农产品的需求越来越高，赣州市作为赣南脐橙等农产品的主要产地，冷链物 流的发展成为赣州市面临的一大难题，如何准确预测农产品的冷链物流需求是赣州市发展农产品冷链物流的前提。文章以 赣州市蔬菜、食用菌和水果的产量为基础，建立灰色 GM（1，1）模型进行预测，并通过相对误差检验、后验差比检验和 小误差概率检验对预测结果进行精度检验，结果表明，模型可以有效地预测未来五年的赣州市农产品冷链物流需求量，根 据赣州市农产品未来冷链物流需求量的发展趋势，对赣州冷链物流的发展提出相应的建议。 关键词： 乡村振兴；农产品；冷链；GM（1，1） 中图分类号：F326.6 文献标识码：A DOI：10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2022.20.041 Abstract: Under the background of rural revitalization, the demand for agricultural products is becoming more and more vigorous. Ganzhou, as the main producing area of Gannan navel orange and other agricultural products, the development of cold chain logistics has become a major problem faced by Ganzhou. How to accurately predict the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products is the premise for Ganzhou to develop cold chain logistics of agricultural products. In this paper, based on the output of vegetables, edible fungi and fruits in Ganzhou, the grey GM (1,1) model is established to predict, and the precision of the prediction results is tested through the relative error test, the posterior difference ratio test and the small error probability test. The results show that the model can effectively predict the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Ganzhou in the next five years. According to the development trend of Ganzhou cold chain logist