基于模糊聚类排序及状态均匀性的电网安全性风险评估.pdfVIP

基于模糊聚类排序及状态均匀性的电网安全性风

险评估

黄文婧，李华强，杨植雅，余雪莹

（四川大学电气信息学院，成都610065

摘要:电网安全性风险评估对预防大停电事故的发生具有重要意义。针对现有安全性风险评估中严重度指

标的可比性、可理解性问题，提出一种基于模糊聚类排序的安全性风险评估方法。基于运行可靠性理论，

构建事故概率模型；运用熵理论，建立系统状态分布熵，克服现有风险评估方法对系统均匀性考虑的欠缺；

考虑指标间可比性问题，采用模糊聚类排序算法求取系统全局综合严重度指标。IEEE30节点系统仿真结

果证明文中方法能够合理有效辨识N-1及N-k故障风险。

关键词:熵；指标可比性；模糊聚类；安全性；风险评估

中图分类号:TM93文献标识码:A文章编号:1001-1390（2018）00-0000-00

PowergridsecuritySecurityriskassessmentofpowergridbasedonfuzzy

clusterandstatehomogeneity

HuangWenjing，,LILiHuaqiang，,YangZhiya，,YuXueying

（SchoolofElectricalEngineeringandInformation，,SichuanUniversity，,Chengdu610065，,China

Abstract:Thepowergridsecurityriskassessmentisofgreatsignificanceforpreventingcatastrophicfailures.

Duetotheshortcomingsoftheexistingsecurityriskassessmentmethodsincomparabilityandunderstandability

ofseverityindex,asecurityriskassessmentmethodbasedonfuzzyclusteranalysisisputforwardinthispaper.

Themethodusesadoptsoperationalreliabilitytheory,tobuildthegridfailureprobabilitymodel.basedBasedon

theentropytheory,buildingthesystemstatedistributionentropyisbuilttoovercomestheshortageoftraditional

severitymodelwhichconsiderconsidersstatehomogeneityinsufficiently.Refertothecomparabilityofindex,，

usingthefuzzyclustermethodisusedtocalculateglobalsystemseverityindex.Thesimulationresults.

ThroughanalyzingtheIEEE30systemsimulation,itprovesthatthemethodcaneffectivelyidentifyN-1andN-k

contingencyrisksthroughanalyzingtheIEEE30-bussystemsimulation.

Keywords:entropy;,comparabilityofindex;,fuzzycluster;,security;,riskassessment

0引言上述文献在建立综合严重度模型时，忽略了系