如果转按揭放开，影响与意义如何？.docx

图表索引

图1：上市银行贷款不良率趋势 6

表1：上市银行按揭贷款占比及按揭利率下调50BP影响测算（亿元） 4

TOC\o1-1\h\z\u表2：个人按揭贷款余额同比变化（亿元） 5

表3：上市银行可比样本居民贷款不良率趋势（%） 7

表4：上市银行可比样本按揭贷款不良率趋势（%） 8

表1：上市银行按揭贷款占比及按揭利率下调50BP影响测算（亿元）

银行简称

税前

ROA

总资产

个人按揭余额

按揭余额/总资产

按揭利率下调50BP

影响利润增速

个人按揭不良率

票据贴现规模

票据贴现利率

票据规模/总资产

国有行1

0.84%

471,165

61,654

13.09%

-7.82%

0.60%

14,873

1.36%

3.16%

国有行2

0.96%

402,944

63,101

15.66%

-8.17%

0.54%

11,226

1.23%

2.79%

国有行3

0.75%

419,846

50,702

12.08%

-8.05%

0.58%

9,350

1.28%

2.23%

国有行4

0.88%

339,073

47,526

14.02%

-7.96%

5,925

1.75%

国有行5

0.65%

164,135

23,616

14.39%

-11.05%

0.50%

4,385

1.50%

2.67%

国有行6

0.67%

141,779

14,610

10.30%

-7.66%

0.48%

2,605

1.10%

1.84%

股份行1

1.55%

115,748

13,754

11.88%

-3.84%

0.40%

4,348

1.53%

3.76%

股份行2

0.95%

103,501

10,652

10.29%

-5.44%

0.65%

2,944

1.45%

2.84%

股份行3

0.65%

92,538

8,336

9.01%

-6.91%

0.75%

3,592

1.69%

3.88%

股份行4

0.96%

91,046

10,220

11.22%

-5.84%

3,470

1.57%

3.81%

股份行5

0.62%

75,510

5,401

7.15%

-5.75%

0.83%

2,414

3.20%

股份行6

0.88%

67,967

5,797

8.53%

-4.86%

1,356

1.43%

2.00%

股份行7

1.11%

57,540

3,066

5.33%

-2.40%

0.44%

1,808

1.87%

3.14%

股份行8

0.78%

43,283

3,168

7.32%

-4.70%

994

2.30%

股份行9

0.60%

32,466

1,553

4.78%

-3.99%

1,086

2.40%

3.34%

城商行1

0.83%

39,457

3,219

8.16%

-4.89%

1,542

3.91%

城商行2

1.30%

37,708

2,441

6.47%

-2.50%

1,123

2.98%

城商行3

0.95%

32,233

1,582

4.91%

-2.58%

0.35%

1,363

1.55%

4.23%

城商行4

1.03%

30,337

923

3.04%

-1.48%

0.60%

1,128

3.72%

城商行5

1.14%

24,828

763

3.07%

-1.35%

0.48%

691

2.78%

城商行6

1.15%

19,848

983

4.95%

-2.16%

0.16%

268

1.35%

城商行7

1.23%

12,003

919

7.66%

-3.12%

0.63%

17

0.14%

城商行8

0.92%

10,969

678

6.18%

-3.36%

54

0.50%

城商行9

0.92%

8,060

400

4.96%

-2.70%

1.08%

291

1.24%

3.61%

城商行10

0.77%

7,139

212

2.97%

-1.92%

72

1.01%

城商行11

0.58%

6,457

325

5.04%

-4.35%

1.12%

180

1.52%

2.79%

城商行12

0.99%

6,540

468

7.15%

-3.61%

202

2.39%

3.09%

城商行13

1.09%

6,595

354

5.37%

-2.47%

0.27%

218

3.30%

城商行14

0.74%

6,475

548

8.46%

-5.69%

95

1.47%

城商行15

0.42%

4,707

327

6.94%

-8.27%

1.25%

314

6.68%

城商行16

0.58%

4,453

266

5.98%

-5.12