2026-27 全球破产展望：警惕下行压力.pptxVIP

GlobalInsolvencyOutlook

2026-27:

Dontlookdown!

21October2025

Content

5

ExecutiveSummary

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Notariffblowforfirms(sofar)

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2025:Anotherglobalincrease

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2026–2027:Mostlyebbingbutpersistingathighlevels

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Regionaloutlooks

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StatisticalAppendix

AllianzResearch

2

•Tradereroutingand(energy)deflationhavepreventedtariffsfrom

unleashingthewaveofcorporateinsolvenciesmanyfeared.Sinceearly

2025,theTrumpadministration’ssweepingimportduties(11%effectiverateinAugust;14%likelybyyear-end)havereshapedglobaltradeflowswithouttriggeringasurgeinUSinsolvencies.Largefirmswerecushionedbyforeignexporters’pricemoderationandthewidespreadreroutingofgoodsthroughthirdcountriessuchasIndiaandVietnam,whichkeptcostsincheck.Tariffs

havealsoshieldedUSdomesticfirmsagainstforeigncompetition.Overthe

firsthalfof2025,weestimatethattariffscontributedtodecreaseinsolvenciesby-4ppswhileapositivedemandeffectmanagedtooffsetmostofthe

negativeeffectsfromincreasinginputcostsforUSfirms,resultinginamodest+4%increaseoverall.Nevertheless,asmitigationstrategieswearthinand

tariffpass-throughincreases,whiledemandisexpectedtoslowdown,we

foreseeacatch-upofinsolvenciesinthenextquarters.TheUSislikelytoend2025witha+9%increase.

•Countrieswhoseeconomiesleanheavilyonexportscouldstillfeelthe

pinch.WefindthatdecreasingexportsleadstorisinginsolvenciesincountriessuchasCanada,France,SpainandtheNetherlands.Intheworst-case

scenario,Canadacouldfaceanextra1,900insolventcompanies,France

+6,000,Spainupto+2,900andtheNetherlands+700.Incontrast,wefindnegligibleimpactfromlowerexportsoncorporateinsolvenciesinGermany,theUK,ItalyandBelgiumeitherduetodiversifiedexportmarkets,ahigherdomesticbaseorstrongerfinancialpositions.

•Weexpec