从房地产二重性看我国房地产市场的宏观调控.pdf

摘要 本文首先对房地产二重性进行了较为详尽的理论分析,基于这些理论考察 了房地产的现状,然后指出为什么宏观调控政策中有些手段不能达到预期效果, 并且对未来中国房地产市场的调整提出了一些建议。 本文的核心部分包括第二、三两章,分别对投资属性和消费属性建立模型, 从微观动机的影响因素分析入手,找到影响房地产市场需求的因素。 在对投资属性分析时,根据未来现金流折现法建立了投机模型和投资模型, 通过对投机模型的分析指出,房价上涨的预期会如何影响利率政策和交易环节 征税政策的效果。通过分析投资模型并据此引进售租比的概念,为后文分析房 地产现状奠定了基础,并且指出利率政策的作用会被快速增长的房价所吞噬。 在对消费属性分析的时候,根据房地产的耐用性,利用购房花销占一生收 入现值的比例建立了房价收入比模型,并且引进了房价收入比的概念,在此基 础上分析了房价对不同收入阶层的影响。根据住房贷款等额偿还的原理,建立 了住房贷款模型,分析了利率对住房消费需求的影响。 本文还通过研究房地产两种属性之间的关系,强化了房地产二重性对宏观 政策制定以及执行效果的意义。 第四、五章集中分析了我国房地产的现状,及对应的政策建议。在分析现 状的时候充分利用了前文的理论工具和研究结论,指出我国房地产内在的,具 有长期影响力的问题。文章的政策建议部分主要是针对建立长期稳定的房地产 市场而言的。提出了: (1)区别对待两种属性所对应需求的具体办法;(2)充 实房地产市场结构,平衡租售比; (3)完善住房保障体系,突出房地产的消费 属性。 关键词:房地产二重性;投资性;消费性;宏观调控4Abstract At the beginning of this article the duality of real estate was analyzed theoreticallyFirst, definition and characteristics of the duality were given. Then, the attributes of investment and consumption were analyzed respectivelyIn the analysis of investment attribute, the speculative and investment model were established according to the future discounted cash flow model. From the speculation model we know that how the expected rise in house prices make the interest rate and tax policy failed. In the investment model, price-rent ratio was introduced, which lay the foundation for later analysis. In this model we also noted that the role of interest rate policy will be mitigated by the fast-growing housing pricesThere are two models as well when consumption attribute was analyzed. One is the price-income model, which is established for analyzing the impact of housing prices ondifferent income groups. The concept of price-income ratio was introduced based on this model to help the analyzing. Another is the housing loans model, in which the influence of the interest rate on the demand for housing consumptionThen the relationship between the two attribute was analyzed, including the confrontation, the unification and the different reflection of both investing demand and c