中国国际短期资本流动的影响因素研究.pdfVIP

要 从2003 年起，中国国际短期资本的流入就己经超过外商直接投资的流入，并 持续成为资本项目下的主要资本流入形式之一，呈现出金额巨大、波动剧烈、难 以跟踪流向等特点。随着中国资本项目的逐步开放，国际短期资本影响中国经济 的途径趋多，力度趋大，而中国的金融体系尚不完善，监管机制尚不健全，对国 际短期资本流动加以多方位研究具有重大的理 和现实意义。 本文在回顾国内外的经典文献的基础上，重点对中国短期资本流入的流动途 径、规模、影响因素等问题做了详细阐述，选取了2003 年9 月至2008 年9 月的 统计数据进行实证研究。研究结果显示，人民币升值预期吸引了大量国际短期资 本流入套利，资产的收益率是影响国际资本流动的主要因素，而中美利差对流动 的影响并不显著。最后，从影响因素的角度提出利率市场化，严密监控资本和不 动产市场的资本流动和提高汇率弹性等有针对性的政策建议。 本文各章结构如下：第一章为导论，对本文的研究背景、意义、结构安排、 创新及不足之处等做了相关说明。第二章为文献综述，主要是对国际短期资本流 动的相关理 和实证研究做了细致的回顾和评述，为后文的分析莫定基础。第三 章对中国国际短期资本流动年度规模做出估算。第四章从国际短期资本的流动动 因进行了理 和实证分析。第五章是全文结 和相关的政策建议。 【关键词】 国际资本流动 规模 影响因素 1 Abstract Since 2003, short-term capital flow has exceeded foreign direct investment becoming one of the major means of capital flows with characteristics as tremendous volatile and difficult to track. Short-term capital flow may cause the rapid expansion of international reserves, unstabilize the RMB, and encourage domestic real estate and stock market bubble tendency, exacerbate the domestic financial system risks. In short, with china s gradual opening up of its capital account, it is necessary to conduct deep research on this issue in order to take advantage of short-term capital flow while avoiding relevant risks. Based on the recalling the classical literature home and abroad, this dissertation focuses on the path and scale of the short-term capital flow as well as the influential elements. By researching on the statistics form 200309 to 200809 empirically, this dissertation finds delivery some significant results. The empirical results say: plenty of the short-term capital inflow because of the exception of the revaluation of RMB, meanwhile the yield of capital of domestic also attract a lot short-term capital, on the other side, the d