能源消费与浙江省出口贸易增长的实证研究毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 能源消费与浙江省出口贸易增长的实证研 究 摘 要 改革开放以来，浙江省出口贸易值不断增长，国民生产总值也获得了大幅增长。但是近年来由于受限于粗放型的经济增长模式，以煤炭为主的能源消费结构使得浙江省的经济增长速度开始减缓，经济结构调整相对缓慢，能源和贸易的可持续发展面临着很大的挑战。能源消费与出口贸易之间究竟存在着何种关系成为近期外贸发展的重点议题。 本文遵循理论与实证相结合的研究思路，第一部分从浙江省能源消费与出口贸易现状出发，以国内外相关理论研究为基础，从理论层面阐述能源消费与出口贸易关系；第二部分在实证分析层面上，运用计量经济学方法,着重分析研究浙江省能源消费与出口贸易的关系，从而阐明能源消费对出口贸易的影响及作用；最后一部分利用实证结果为浙江省如何实现能源资源与出口贸易的可持续发展，建立双赢政策，真正落实科学发展观给予建议。 关键词Abstract Since the reform and open, Zhejiang’s export trade value has been increased significantly as well as GNP. But in recent years, restricted by the extensive mode of economic growth, the coal-based energy consumption structure makes Zhejiang’s economic growth began to slow, relatively slow economic restructuring. The sustainable development of energy and trade is faced with great challenges. What is the relationship between energy consumption and export trade becomes the focus of the recent development of foreign trade issues. This article followed the research ideas of a combination of theoretical and empirical, the first part started from the current situation of Zhejiang’s energy consumption and export trade, elaborated the relationship between energy consumption and export trade from the theoretical on the base of domestic and foreign research theories; the second part used econometric methods, focusing on analysis of energy consumption and export trade in Zhejiang Province on the level of empirical analysis; the last part gave advices on how to achieve sustainable development of Zhejiang’s energy resources and export trade, build win-win policy, and truly implement the scientific concept of development by using the empirical resuls. Keywords: Energy consumption, Export trade, Empirical study目 录 1能源消费与出口贸易增长关系的理论分析 1 1.1 国外理论研究成果 1 1.2 国内理论研究成果 3 2 浙江省能源消费与出口贸易发展现状 5 2.1 浙江省能源消费现状 5 2.1.1 能源消费弹性系数分析 6 2.1.2 能耗强度分析 7 2.1.3 能源经济效益分析 8 2.1.4 浙江省能源消费居高不下的原因 8 2.2 浙江省出口贸易状况 9 3浙江省能源消费与出口贸易增长的实证分析 12 3.1 指标选取和数据来源 12 3.1.1 指标的选取及意义 12 3.1.2 数据来源 12 3.2 数据分析 12 3.2.1 数据的平稳性检验