基于私家车保有量预测与调控的灰色模型研究.pdfVIP

37 6 Vol. 37 No. 6 2008 11 Journal of China University of Mining T e hnology Nov. 2008 朱开永, 周圣武, 娄可元, 孙成同 ( , 22 1116) : 利用灰色系统理论建立了私家车保有量预测的数学模型, 针对对某地区1996 ) 2007 年连 12 年私家车保有量, 利用该灰色预测模型得到了该地区2008 年和2009 年私家车保有量分别 为174108 及2661 11 万辆的预测结果. 针对影响私家车保有量的人均国内生产总值公交车营运 总里程居民人均可支配收入等 11 个指标, 利用灰色关联分析法得出: 要控制汽车废气的排放 量, 就必须限制私家车的增长, 加快发展公共交通, 为市民出行提供便利的乘车环境. : 私家车保有量; 灰色系统; 预测; 灰色关联分析 : C 9311 1 : A : 1000- 1964( 2008) 06-0868-04 Resear h on Grey M odel about Fore ast and Control for T otal Number of Private Cars ZHU Ka-i yong , ZHOU Sheng-w u, LOU Ke-yuan, SUN Cheng-tong ( S hool of S ien es, China University of Mining T e hnology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China) Abstract: T he mathemati al model for the predi tion of total number of private ar s w as pro- posed using a grey sy stem theory. Based on total number of private ars in some areas for ea h year in 1996- 2007, the total number of private ars in the area w ould be 17401 8 thousand for the y ear of 2008, and 266 11 1 thousand for the y ear of 2009. Using a grey orrelation analy sis and onsidering eleven indi es affe ting the total number of private ars, in luding GDP per a- pita, total publi transportation mileage, r esidents. per apita disposable in ome, the results indi ate that in order to ontrol the exhaust gas release of vehi les as w ell as to provide onven- ient transportation envir onment for itizens, it is ne essary to r estri t in rease of private ars and a elerate the development of publi transportation. Key words: total number of private ars; grey system; fore ast; gr ey orrelation analysis