基于状态空间的连续断面船舶交通流量预测研究.pdfVIP

U A doi issn j A Study of Vessel Traffic Flow Forecast Based on State Space Analysis of Continuous Cross Sections WU Kang WANG Yang XIE Lei WU Bing I ntelligent T r ansp ortation Sy s tem Research Cente r W uhan Univ ers ity of Technology W uhan China Abstract T he vessel traffic flow is the foundation of decision making s related to the design lanning and manage p ment of channels T his paper investigates the traditional vessel traffic flow forecast model of single cross section in w ater w ay and studies continuous cross section model based upon state space and Kalman filtering T he space state model is de veloped based on a multidimensional linear regression analy sis of the time series formed f rom the traffic flow at the multi ple cross sections Kalman filtering is used to recursively forecast the vessel traffic flow at the multi cross sections In the study the vessel traffic flow s at the Wuhan Yang tze Bridge and Wuhan Yang tze No Bridge in the City of Wuhan Chi na w ere analyzed to test the proposed model T he result show s the error decreases and respectively com paring to the results f rom the traditional forecast model using single cross section In addition the real vessel traffic flow collected at Chaotianmen Wanzhou and Wushan in Chongqing China w ere also used to compare the proposed model w ith the single cross section model w hich results a and decreases respectiv