我国财政风险和控制研究.pdfVIP

我国财政藏硷及其控裁研究 The Study on the Fiscal Risks in China and Their Control Measures Abstract Accompanied by positive fiscal policy from 1998，the scale of the fiscal deficit and the national debt in China has been enlarged rapidly，which caused wide concern and debate in not only political but also scientific fields on the problem：Whether fiscal risk exists in china?Is there space to issue stock of national debt?The debate iS still open now，and furthers the concerned study． Systematic research on Fiscal risk will help people realizing the risk and avoiding its damage to the stability of state power and social development．The thesis is studied justforthe aims． ‘ Based on former study，the thesis discussed a set of questions on fiscal risk with methods of positive analysis and normative analysis，such as the definition and characteristics，the types and system，real reflects of fiscal deficit and government debts，all these provide objective guide for people to recognize and assess fiscal risk． In addition，the thesis not only explored the forming factors and transmittal mechanism of fiscal risk，but also gave some suggestions on how to keep observe and control the risk． The thesis has made a breakthrough in related fields，such as clarification of the definition，the characteristics and the system of fiscal risks，the perspective of analyzing the forming factors，etc．Especially，the transmittal mechanism of fiscal risks filled the vacancy of current research． The thesis argues that there are serious fiscal risks in China today，which are the consequences of internal and external causes，and should be controlled simultaneously in different perspectives，especially political system reform． Key words Fiscal Risk Forming Factor Transmittal Mechanism Control 筇2咂共60页 我国财政A蹬及冀控翎研究 第一章研究背景 众所周知，财政风险是各国政府都十分敏感的问题。回顾中外历史，因财政 问题而致政权更迭的例子并不鲜见。前苏联的解体、东欧的巨变，最终都是因 财政丧失了支付能力所致；2000年底阿根廷陷入全面的政治危机、经济危机和 社会危机，其主要原因之一也是庞大的财政赤字和沉重的债务负担削弱了阿根 廷经济的活力。 财政风险是否必然存在?在市场机制下，政府的经济活动必然要受到市场法 则的约束，而市场机制本身就是风险机制，也就决定了市场机