天津市工业能源消费碳排放和其绩效分析研究.pdf

Abstract Abstract With the rapid industrial economic development in Tianjin，industrial energy consumption has gown continuously and accounts for 70％of the city’S total energy consumption．Set up carbon emissions measurement methods，and carry OUt carbon emissions time series analysis for industrial energy consumption in Tianjin during the period of 1 999-2010．The results show that：during the past decade，the average annual growth rate of industrial carbon emissions from energy consumption is 11．36％，lower than the average growth rate of industrial economy(22．4 1％)；the industrial energy intensity and carbon intensity present the downward trend， indicating that the industrial energy—saving and carbon reduction work has achieved some success．There is still room for energy structure adjustment． With the decomposition method of LMDI。analyze carbon emission changes in four factors：industrial economy scale，industry structure，energy efficiency and energy structure．The results show that the industrial economy scale is the dominant factor to raise carbon emissions，which contributes for 57．38％in carbon emission change；the impacts of industry structure is small；the energy efficiency is the key factor to reduce carbon emissions，which contributes for 30．54％in carbon emission change；energy structure promote carbon emission increase．which contributes for 1 O．85％．Further decomposition analysis was undertaken in industrial sub-sectors， and the analysis results indicated that the development of energy-intensive industries seriously affected the carbon emission from energy consumption in Tianjin’S industrial sub．sectors． Define industrial carbon emission performance，and carry oUt performance analysis for industrial sub．sectors in Tianjin．In 201 0，most of the sub-sectors’ performance is higher than the average level of China，and lower than the level of Beijing or Shenzhen．Establish energy consumption predicting model．The results show that：the carbon emission intensity reduction target(1 7％)