探讨台湾建筑产业厂商行为与结构性空屋之研究.doc

探討台灣建築產業廠商行為與結構性空屋之研究 A Research Of Industrial Behavior And Structural Vacancies Of Construction Industry Chen, Yu-Ching 指導教授：謝惠元 Hsieh, Hui-Yuan 【摘要】 由於大環境的變遷，在景氣循環快速轉變下，對建築業的影響大，本研究以結構-行為-績效 S-C-P 理論，探討台灣建築產業建築業廠商行為、影響廠商行為之因素、績效與效果。本研究針對台灣23個縣市，由1999年至2009年共計253個觀察值進行迴歸分析，發現建築貸款餘額、經濟成長率、人口密度、地價、放款加權平均利率、空屋數、金融風暴以及高鐵變數，對建築廠商行為具有顯著影響。進一步利用聯合檢定 Joint Test ，發現1999年至2009年之供給面模型F值高於需求面模型F值 101.1096 10.5845 ，與歷年研究結果比較，發現供給面推力大幅增加，顯示供需之力量還是由供給面之因素所決定，建商行為仍扮演重要角色。再以二階段最小平方法模型 2SLS ，針對其動態市場進行各變數間之分析市場模型下之廠商行為、產業績效以及產業效果，發現動態與靜態環境下，廠商行為不同，消費者購置住宅貸款力道大過於建築貸款餘額，以及市場存在高空屋數，雖不影響其市場之供需運作，但深入探討發現結構性空屋率開始下降，代表摩擦性空屋在空屋數中的比重已漸漸增加，即需求面因素漸形重要。建築績效受到廠商行為影響，同時亦受地價、消費者購置住宅貸款餘額以及金融風暴所影響。有形效果受地價與結構性空屋率影響，而無形效果受結構性空屋率影響。金融風暴對廠商行為是有負面影響，而高鐵變數則隨著時間的拉長，且其效益發生有著正面影響的效果，如區域之外溢效果。 研究建議供給面的力道仍過大，建築業應重視及改善需求面之因素；結構性空屋率的下降，顯示摩擦性空屋率上升，代表建商應以顧客需求為主；產業結構改變，建商應將住宅重新定義，提高其附加價值；高鐵興起，交通利多，建商應把握未開發地區。 cities and counties in Taiwan, during 1999 to 2009, and a total of 253 observations are examined. In OLS regression model, construction loans, economic growth, population density, land price, interest rates, vacancies, financial crisis and transportation variables have significant impact on developers’ behavior. Through Joint Test, we found that the supply factors were greater than the demand factors F 101.1096 10.5845 . We compare with findings of previous researches and find that, the supply force implying that developers’ behavior were increases significantly, crucial to this industry. While dynamic market model, we use Two-Stage Least Square Method 2SLS to analyze construction industrial behavior, performance, effect. Developers’ behavior differed between static and dynamic models, indicating that the influence of consumer loans was greater then that of construction loans and frictional vacancies is increasing. It means demand force is increasing. Construction performance is affected by developer behavior, land price, consumer loans and financial crisis. Tangible effect is affected by land price,