ppt课件-compatibilityofsurfaceandaircraftstationnetworksfor.pptVIP

Compatibility of surface and aircraft station networks for inferring carbon fluxes TransCom Meeting, 2005 Nir Krakauer California Institute of Technology niryk@caltech.edu Zhonghua Yang, Jim Randerson, Paul Wennberg Motivation Diagnosing model vertical transport with measurements from aircraft: a schematic Inversion set-up GLOBALVIEW-2004 stations Use mean CO2 concentrations for 2000-2003, when more aircraft data collected Only stations with 60% actual data for period Transport operators from TransCom model annual-mean output Data uncertainty assumed proportional to station residual standard deviation TransCom regions and priors Long-term aircraft profiles 2000-3 flux for all northern regions Models that are too vertically stratified tend to imply a larger northern sink Interim conclusions Comparing surface with aircraft data sets suggests that much of the TransCom intermodel variability in northern sink estimates is due to variation in model vertical mixing strength Most TransCom models may have too little vertical mixing, so that surface observations imply an overly large northern sink Detailed comparison of modeled vs. observed vertical CO2 distributions is probably required to diagnose just where this mixing bias arises (convection? isentropic transport? diurnal cycle?) and how to reduce it Next: for an imperfect model, how do we best combine surface with other (e.g. aircraft) observations? Strategies for choosing weights 1) Generalized cross validation Through minimizing a GCV objective function, parameters such as the weighting of prior information (λ) and the differential weighting of high- and low-variability stations (τ) can be set to optimize the model’s prediction of left-out observations See my GRL paper 2) Here we try a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach (Koch and Kusche 2002) Divide inversion data into independent groups (e.g. surface vs. aircraft observations vs. prior flux information) Scale the initial error covariance matrix of each group