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Presentation in Two Parts:1. Dissertation Proposal Outline2. Preliminary Results to Date PART I DISSERTATION PROPOSAL OUTLINE Coastal O.F.S. Definition A Coastal Operational Nowcast and Forecast (O.F.S.) Hydrodynamic Model System is a set of computer codes that can provide sufficiently reliable predictions about the present and future state of water levels and other hydrodynamic properties (such as currents, T, S, etc.) for a coastal area. OBJECTIVES Objective 1: Quantify and maximize the performance of NYHOPS A1. Selection and enhancement of computer codes and circulation drivers A2. Forecast stability and continuous quality control (QC) A3. Continuous quality assurance (QA) for model predictions A4. Online distribution of forecast QA A5. Maximize automation – Minimize user interference Objective 2: Use NYHOPS to investigate marine climatology B1. Quantification of the dominant tidal circulation components B2. Investigation of diurnal and spring-neap tide variability B3. Investigation of longer-time-scale climatological effects B4. Identification and categorization of synoptic events METHODS Objective 1: Quantify and maximize the performance of NYHOPS A3. Continuous quality assurance (QA) for model predictions EDUCATE observations used to assess NYHOPS predictive skill. Continuous stream of data… continuous stream of skill assessments. A5. Maximize automation – Minimize user interference EDUCATE uses PERL, Java, and MySQL. All runtime steps and model routines use FORTRAN, PERL, MySQL. Post-processing steps use FORTRAN, PERL, MySQL, Java, Matlab, HTML, PHP. Automated as cron jobs in the LINUX environment. Objective 2: Use NYHOPS to investigate marine climatology Reference Years Establish forecast skill of the updated NYHOPS by looking at operational 2007 record. Categorized by five 24hr periods to investigate possible skill loss: -24..0hrs, -12..+12hrs, 0..+24hrs, +12…+36hrs, +24+48hrs. Run 2004-2007 hindcasts for climatological record. Four years are a start.
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