我国大中城市不同层次房价上涨的影响因素比较分析——基于35个大中城市的面板数据分析.pdfVIP

NO.8.20 1) (Cumulati Vl,ly,NO.240) C立f在勺战略 REFOHM ATION STRATEGY 2013年第8期 吉布 29卷(总第240期 ) 我国大中城市不同层次房价上涨的 影晌因素比较分析 一一基于 35 个大中城市的面板数据分析 经 济 与 制 度 研 究 --…- 王琴英 (北京工商大学经济学院.北京 1 ()()()48 ) [摘要1 2009年以来，我国 35 个大中城市的商品住宅房价基本形成了三个层次的房价水平，这三个层次房价城市的乎均房价 与房价收入比具有明显的差异。 JiJ板数据模型分析表明，引起各层次房价城市的商品住宅均价持续上涨的主妥因素是房地产开 发投资总额成本和货币市场流动性，它们对第一层次房价城市的弹性影响强度明显大于第二、三层次房价城市。 资金市场预期 对第一层次房价城市和第二层次房价城市中的杭州、反门、宁波和广州的房价上涨产生了抑制效应，而对第二层次房价城市中 的南京、福州、天津、 大途和海口以及整个第二层次房价城市的房价上涨没有抑制作用 。 [关键词]大中成市;三个层次房价水乎;面板数据模型;影响因素 [中图分类号1 F293.3 [文献标识码1 A [文章编号] 1002- 736X(2013)08-0052-05 The Comparative Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Housing Prices of Different Levels in Large and Medium Cities in China 一Based on the Panel Data Analysis of 35 Large and Medium Cities in China Wang Qinying (School of Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048) Abstract: Since 2009, Commercial housing prices formed three tiers of price levels on 35 large and medium cities in China. The average priccs and housc price income ratio of these three level house price cities have obvious differences. The Analysis of panel data model show that the main factors are the total amount of investment in real estate development and Money market liquidity, these main factors cause commercial housing prices of first, second and third-tier price cities going up, and their elastic impact on first-tier price cities strength significantly larger than the second and third-tier price cities. Financial markets expected had inhibitory effects to Price increases On first-tier price c ities and second-tier price cities of Hangzhou, Xiamen, Ningbo and Guangzhou, but no inhibitory effects on second-tier price cities ofTianjin, Dalian, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Haikou and all third-tier price cities. Key words: large and medium cities; the three tiers of price levels; panel data models; influence factors 1854元/平方米，提高到 2008年的 4875 元/平11米.年均增长 10.15% (按水平 法计算) 。 期间.由于房地产投资过 热、房价上涨过快等原因. 2003-2008 住房市场化改革的推进和房地产市场投