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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions.doc

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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,9,13569–13607,2012 /9/13569/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-13569-2012 Hydrology and EarthSystem Sciences HESSD ?Author(s)2012.CCAttribution3.0License. Discussions 9,13569–13607,2012 Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESSifavailable. Doprobabilistic forecastsleadto betterdecisions? M.H.Ramosetal. Doprobabilisticforecastsleadtobetter decisions? TitlePage Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures M.H.Ramos ,S.J.vanAndel ,andF.Pappenberger3 1 2 1Irstea(formerlyCemagref),HydrologyGroup,URHBAN,Antony,France UNESCO-IHEInstituteforWaterEducation,Delft,TheNetherlands ECMWF,EuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts,Shin?eldPark, 2 3 Reading,UK J J I I Received:12November2012–Accepted:22November2012 –Published:10December2012 Back Close Correspondenceto:M.H.Ramos(maria-helena.ramos@irstea.fr) FullScreen/Esc PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 13569 Abstract HESSD The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro- meteorologicalforecastsandincreasingtheirreliability.Thisfollowedthepromisethat, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based de- cisions.Inrecentyears,therefore,researchandoperationaldevelopmentshavealso startputtingattentiontowaysofcommunicatingtheprobabilisticforecaststodecision makers.Communicatingprobabilisticforecastsincludespreparingtoolsandproducts for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and useuncertaintyinformationinreal-time.AttheEGUGeneralAssembly2012,wecon- 9,13569–13607,2012 Doprobabilistic forecastsleadto betterdecisions? 5 M.H.Ramosetal. 10 ducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of ?ood forecasts and achoiceofactionstotakewerepresentedaspartofagametoparticipants,whoacted asdecisionmakers.Answerswereco