基于非线性状态估计技术的设备故障预警方法.docVIP

Computer Science and Application 计算机科学与应用, 2011, 1, 103-107 /10.12677/csa.2011.13021 Published Online December 2011 (/journal/csa) Equipment Failure Prognostic Method Based on Nonlinear State Estimate Technique Shuping Chang , Wen Zhu , Yukun Lv 1 2* 2 Thermal Dynamic Technology Institute, Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang Department of Automation, North China Electric Power University, NCEPU, Baoding Email: {hbdyycsp, zhuwen654299114}@163.com; luyukunf@126.com Received: Sep. 6th, 2011; revised: Oct. 3rd, 2011; accepted: Oct. 24th, 2011. 1 2 Abstract: In the power plant per year’s operation cost, the equipment maintains cost accounts for a great pro- portion. The equipment failure could cause enormous loss. If we could find out the signs of prognostic as ear- ly as possible, we can take effective measures to avoid the negative consequences. Alter the forced maintains into active ones, changing non-plan halt to planned halt. In this way, we can reduce the times of equipment failure to the least, prolong maintains intervals, decrease the time for maintains. So the expanse of maintains can be reduced, the property of equipment can be improved, and the cost of fuels also can be saved. Further more, the accountability and availability of the generators and the income of electricity sales can be raised up, which contributes to the less fines. Keywords: Nonlinear State Estimate Technique; Prognostic; Failure 基于非线性状态估计技术的设备故障预警方法 常澍平，朱雯，吕玉坤 2 1 2* 1 河北电力研究院，石家庄 2 华北电力大学，保定 Email: {hbdyycsp, zhuwen654299114}@163.com; luyukunf@126.com 收稿日期：2011年 9月 6日；修回日期：2011年 10月 3日；录用日期：2011年 10月 24日 摘 要：在电厂每年的运营成本中，设备检修占很大比例，设备故障给电厂造成的损失巨大。如果能 够在设备故障形成的早期就发现征兆，提前采取一定的措施，避免故障的发生，变被动检修为主动检 修、非计划停机为计划停机，就能够减少故障的发生，使检修的间隔合理延长、检修的时间缩短，这 样，不但能够降低检修费用，提高设备性能，节约燃料成本，而且可以提高发电机组的可靠性、可用 率和售电的收入，减少发电考核造成的罚款。 关键词：非线性状态估计技术；预警；故障 1.引言 电机组相继投运。机组容量不断增大，运行参数越来越 高，自动化系统的规模越来越大。这