Risk Models to Predict Chronic Kidney Disease and Its Progression A Systematic Review 英文参考文献.docVIP

RiskModelstoPredictChronicKidneyDiseaseandIts Progression:ASystematicReview JustinB.Echouffo-Tcheugui1*,AndreP.Kengne2,3,4,5* 1Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 2NCRP for Cardiovascular and MetabolicDiseases,SouthAfricanMedicalResearchCouncil,CapeTown,SouthAfrica,3DepartmentofMedicine,FacultyofHealthSciences,UniversityofCapeTown, Cape Town, South Africa, 4The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia, 5Julius Centerfor Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht,Utrecht,TheNetherlands Abstract Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common, and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and end-stagerenaldisease,whicharepotentiallypreventablethroughearlyidentificationandtreatmentofindividualsatrisk. Although risk factors for occurrence and progression of CKD have been identified, their utility for CKD risk stratification through prediction models remains unclear. We critically assessed risk models to predict CKD and its progression, and evaluatedtheirsuitabilityforclinicaluse. MethodsandFindings:WesystematicallysearchedMEDLINEandEmbase(1January1980to20June2012).Dualreview was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model constructedtopredicttheoccurrence/presenceofCKDorprogressiontoadvancedstages.Datawereextractedonstudy characteristics,riskpredictors,discrimination,calibration,andreclassificationperformanceofmodels,aswellasvalidation and impact analyses. We included 26 publications reporting on 30 CKD occurrence prediction risk scores and 17 CKD progressionpredictionriskscores.ThevastmajorityofCKDriskmodelshadacceptable-to-gooddiscriminatoryperformance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.0.70) in the derivation sample. Calibration was less commonly assessed,butoverallwasfoundtobeacceptable.OnlyeightCKDoccurrenceandfiveCKDprogressionri