数学建模美赛选拔论文.docVIP

对广州市人口演化问题的探究 Abstract For the Guangzhou population evolution problem, basing on the census data in the statistical yearbook, with the Leslie matrix model, population quality hierarchical analysis (AHP) model, Markov chain model , Grey prediction GM (1, 1) model set up, we estimated the registered population of the 2005 and 2010, the registered populations age structure, evaluated the population quality in Guangzhou for the past eight years and forecast the registered population’s age structure and population quality the next 30 years respectively in the one child policy and two-children policy under the condition of Guangzhou. For question one: according to the fifth population census data (2000), the total number of all ages under the condition of mortality and fertility, we can use Leslie model to estimate the age structure of after years, because of data and large amount of calculation, only calculates the age structure in 2005 and 2010. (the results are shown in table 6). For question two: evaluation of the quality of the population can be considered from many aspects, this article selects the physical quality and cultural level, economic level, three level indicators and six secondary indicators established hierarchical analysis model of population quality, after the original data standardization worked out over the past eight years ,we got the comprehensive evaluation index (the results are shown in table 13). For question 3: in the case that family planning is not a new practice , based on the age structure of 2001-2007 data, using Markov chain model to predict the population age structure in the next 30 years ( results shown in Table 15 ) ; based on 2005-2011 population quality assessment index , using the Gray forecasting model to predict the quality of the population in the next 30 years ( results shown in Table 17 ). For question 4: With the new family planning, birth rate will be increased significantly, through researches on the change of factors, es