基于系统动力学的农业资源保障及其政策模拟以黑龙江省为例.pdfVIP

第 30 替第 9 期 Vo1.30, No.9 系统工确理论与实践 2010年 9 月 Systems Engineering … Theory Practice Sept. , 2010 文章编号: 1000-6788(2010)09- 1586-07 中团分类号: F323.2 文献标志码:A 基于系统动力学的农业资源保障及其政策模拟:以黑龙江省为例 刘志强，陈渊，金剑，潘相文 (中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，哈尔滨 150081) 摘提从资源保障角度探讨区域农业发展过程中，由于地理资源的生态功能减弱，引起的农业资 源承载能力下降问题，可以使区域农业发展在资源战略层面得到持续保障.对黑龙江省近 20 年来 农产品增长与水土资源变化及其土地退化等系统要素，边用系统动力学与政策模拟方法进行复合 模型的动态模拟研究，建立了黑龙江省农业资源保障的模拟模型，确定出适于该区域农业持续发展 的资源保障与政策模拟方案，提出了需要解决的主费问题和调控举措. 关键词系统动力学;动态模拟;资源保障;政策模拟 Agricultural resources guarantee and its policy simulation based on systematic dynamics: Taken Heilon副iang Province as example LIU Zhi-qiang , CHEN Yuan , JIN Jian , PAN Xiang-wen (No附加酬 Institute of Geography 棚d Agroecolo即， Chiuωe Academy of Scien师， Harbin 150081, China) Abstract Regional agricultural development could be continually 附ured on the level of r册。urce strate肌 if the problem of reduction of bearing capacity of 略ricultural r倒ource in the development of regional agriculture, caused by the weakness on the ecological function of geography r佣our俑， w，剧的re西sed from r田ource guarant盹 With the methods of systemic dynamics and policy simulation, we used the complex model to study the dyI阳nic simulation involving the systemic items such 皿 agricultural products rise , water and land resource , and land degeneration in the p田t thr四 decad倒 in Heilon思jiang Province. The simulation model for agrícultural rωource guarantee in Heilon回íang Province was established to make a plan of rl四ource 职larantee for regional agriculture sustainable development and policy símulation. The main problems to be solved and regulating measurements were propos