基于马尔可夫链的易变性职业转移模型研究.pdfVIP

东华大学学报(自然科学版) Vo l. 38. No.3 第 38 卷第3 期 2012 年 8 月 JOURNAL OF OONGHUA UN1VERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) Jun.2012 文章编号: 1671-0444(2012)03-0338-06 基于马尔可夫链的易变性职业转移模型研究 符谢红 (东华大学旭日工商管理学院，上海 20005 1) 摘要:当传统再-:lk.生涯逐渐向易变性职业生涯转变，职业的转移为多方向性、动态性和不可预测 性.基于职业发展的混沌理论，尝试探索易变性职业路径规律的定量描述，将易变性职业看成一随 机过程，运用马尔可夫链模型，选取营销资深人员的职业路径作为研究样本，建立易变性职业转移 模型，并进行算例分析，从而得到职止转移整体模式稳定性的规律.结果显示易变性职业转移模 型具有良好的适用性，该职业转移模型在理论上是对易变性职业生涯定量研究的有益补充，并在人 力资源领域，特别是揭示人才成长规律方面具有实践意义. 关键词t 马尔可夫链;J变性职业转移模型$营销资深人员 中图分类号: F 224;F 240 文献标志码:A Research on Protean Career Mobility Model 8ased on Markov Chain Approach FU Xie-hong (Glorious Sun School of Business and Management. Donghua Univers町. Shanghai 2000日. China) Abstract: With the traditional career change to the protean one. the transforming careers become multidirectional. dynamic and unpredictable. Based on stochastic theory. the mathematical patterns were set up to revealing protean career transformation Iaw. Tracking randomness of the protean career by using the Markov chain. the protean career mobilíty model was set up to reflect its overall stability by giving marketing seniority as the application of the model. The conclusion showed that the protean career mobility model had good applicability. The model contributes to the quantitative study of a protean career. The exploratory findings have important application in human recourse management. specifically in revealing the law of talents growth. Key words , Markov chain ,protean career mobility model ,marketing seniority 工作的每次转移形成了职业路径的特点.不同 体而言.职业路径规律是个体自我职业指导的重要 职业的路径特点各不相同，对某一特定职业的路径 基础.随着我国经济的发展，职业也在不断地变化， 特点进行规律研究有助