用序贯博弈理论探讨烟叶生产和卷烟工业的发展.pdfVIP

农技服务，2010 ， 27(4) :506 -508 责任编霸胡先祥责任校对李岩 用序贯博弈理论探讨烟叶生产和卷烟工业的发展 张变莉1 ，贯峰2 ，陈冬冬3 ，贡彦军4 (1.河南农业职业学院，河南中牟 451450;2. 河南农业大学炯草学院.河南郑州 45仪lO2: 3. 山西昆明烟草有限责任公司，河南太原 03∞12;4. 四川省达州市开江县烟草公司，四川开江636250) 摘要 继国家烟草专卖局提出发展中式卷烟和特色烟叶的战略决策后，卷烟工业与烟叶生产之间相互依赖的关系变得更加紧密，但是 二者作为独立的经济主体，也存在经济利益的冲突。如何处理好二者之间的利益冲突，对于中国烟草行业健康可持续发展至关重要。 笔者运用序贯博弈理论建立支付矩阵，分析卷烟工业企业和烟叶生产之间利益冲突的发展和演变过程，认为烟叶生产应明确和稳定当 地特色烟叶品质;卷烟工业企业深入挖掘特色烟叶在中式卷烟中的配伍性能，自主开发风格独特的中式品牌卷烟。烟草种植与卷烟企 业相互合作共同稳定烟叶和卷烟的质量，中国烟草业才会形成长期可持续友展的局面。 关键词 序贯博弈;中式卷烟;特色烟叶;经济矛盾;协调发展 中图分类号 S572 文献标识码 A 文章编号 l∞4 - 8421 (2010)04 -506 -03 Developmental Trends of Tobacco Producer and Cigarettes Industry Based on Sequentia1 Game Model ZHANG Bian-li et al (Henan Vocationa1 College of Agricultu凹， Zhongmo ,Henan 451450 ) Abstract Followed the strategic decision-making of the development Chinese style cigarettes and characteristics tobacco by State Tobacco Mo- nopoly Bureau ,the relationship between the cigarette industry and tobacco producer is more independent and closely. However ,there is a con- flict of economic interests between the cigarette industry and tobacco producer ,because they are independent economic entities ,which a.re es- 回ntial for sustainable development handling between the interests of the hea1th of the Chinese tobacco indus町. In this paper ,there 缸e 回t 出e model of sequentia1 g田ne between cigarette companies and tobacco producer to estahlish the payment matrix , and to analysis their decision- making process. On one hand ,tohacco producer should be 10 clear and stabilize the characteristics qua1ity of loca1 tobacco leaves ,on 由.e other hand ,tobacco industry should clearly know the compatibility of different characteristics leaves in the Chinese style cigarettes ,which a unique sty