北京市居民参与市民农园意愿的影响因素分析.pdfVIP

Vo l. 12 No.3 第 12 卷第3 期 北京林业大学学报{社会科学版} 2013 年 9 月 Joumal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences) Sep. 2013 北京市居民参与市民农园意愿的影晌因素分析 蔡昕好，田明华，孙伊娃，吴肖梦，杜学贤，管 乐 (北京林业大学经济管理学院) 摘要:市民农园是都市农业发展到高级阶段的产物，以体验农业为主要形式。掌握市民的参与意愿是推动市民农 园发展的基础。依据 20口年8-10 月对 872 名北京市居民进行的问卷调查，采用二元因变量的 Logistic 回归分析 模型，最大似然估计法对北京市居民参与市民农园意愿的影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:认知状况、婚姻状况、 受教育程度、年龄、收入、职业对参与意愿的影响比较显著。最后根据研究结果提出应运用各种适宜的宣传形式提 高市民农园认知度，并针对特定人群开展特色营销提高市民参与意愿。 关键词:市民农园;模型分析:参与意愿;影响因素 中图分类号: F326.2 文献标志码:A 文章编号: 1671 -6 116(2013) -03-0055 -09 Impact Factors of Resideots Participatioo Willingness 00 Allot Gardens io Beijing CAI Xin-yu , TIAN Ming-hua , SUN Yi-wa , WU Xiao-meng , DU Xue-xian , GUAN Yue (School 0/ Economics and Mαnagement ,Beijing Forestry University ,100083 ,P. R. China) Abstract: Allot garden is the product of urban agriculture at a certain stage. Its main form is experiencing agriculture. Residents participation willingness is the development foundation of allot gardens. Based on su凹ey of 872 residents in Beijing from August to October 2012 , this paper studies the impact factors of residents participation willingness on allot gardens with binary dependent variable logistic regression model and maximum likelihood method. Results show that cognitive status , marital status , education level , age , income , occupation influence residents participation willingness significantly. According to the results , the authors suggest that allot gardens should use suitable propaganda forms to raise the residents recognition , and develop characteristic marketing programs for special groups to enhance thei