人口因素对我国基本养老保险基金收支平衡影响探究.docVIP

人口因素对我国基本养老保险基金收支平衡影响探究摘 要:本文运用人口预测模型和基本养老保险基金收支预测模型,对未来我国人口状况和基本养老保险基金收支状况进行了预测;变动相关人口因素,测算人口因素变动下的基础养老金和个人账户养老金收支情况,得出相关人口因素如何影响基本养老基金收支平衡的结论。结果表明:对于基础养老金来讲,育龄妇女分年龄生育率的上升、职工的起始工作年龄的提高、退休年龄的提高、养老保险缴费人数增加或领取养老金人数的减少均有利于基金收支平衡。对于个人账户养老金来讲,职工死亡概率的降低不利于其个人账户养老金收支平衡的实现;职工的退休年龄越高,职工从养老保险制度获益越大,个人账户缺口增加。 关键词:基本养老保险;收支平衡;人口因素 中图分类号:F840.67 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-5192(2010)02-0042-05 A Study on the Effects of Population Factors on the Payment Balance of Basic Pension Insurance Funds in China LUO Zheng-qing, CHEN Zhou-yan, LU An (School of Manegement, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China) Abstract:This paper forecasts the situation of China’s population and the fundamental old age insurance fund’s revenue and expenditure during 50 years by using the models of Population Prediction and The Basic Old-age Insurance Fund?s payments. Subsequently, new results in the revenue and expenditure of the basic pension and individual accounts pension are calculated under the different values of some population factors, from which the influence of population factors on the balance of endowment insurance is obtained. The result shows: to basic pension, it?s beneficial to the balance of the endowment insurance funding when there?s increasing in such factors: the reproductive women fertility rate, the employee?s initial age at employment, the age at retirement and the number of the contributors;But it goes against the balance when the number of the beneficiaries is increasing. To individual accounts pension, The funding balance will profit from decreasing employee?s death probability; And the later the employee retires, the more beneficial he takes from the Endowment Insurance System, the more advantages for workers. Key words:fundamental old age insurance; the balance of income and expenditure; population factors 1 引言 人口因素作为影响我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡中的重要方面已引起了国内学者的普遍关注和研究。如王鉴岗[1]提出了一种养老保险平衡测算的方法,以一定的人口模型数据为依据,测算出养老保险平衡的结果并加以分析;王晓军[2]对我国城镇职工养老保险年度收支和积累结余进行了预测