怎样看待当前宏观经济形势（How to look at the current macroeconomic situation）.docVIP

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怎样看待当前宏观经济形势（How to look at the current macroeconomic situation）.doc

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怎样看待当前宏观经济形势（How to look at the current macroeconomic situation）

怎样看待当前宏观经济形势（How to look at the current macroeconomic situation） Can interest rates curb inflation? Since the second half of 2010, Chinas agricultural and sideline products prices have risen sharply, cotton, mung beans, ginger, garlic and other sharp rally, after October, vegetable prices have also risen sharply. For a time, social expectations for inflation have risen sharply. In this regard, the State Council issued a series of policies in a timely manner to stabilize prices. The central bank has also raised interest rates to curb inflation. The latest rate hike was the Spring Festival, and the central bank raised the one-year deposit rate from 2.75% to 3%. Then, how should we correctly view the current inflation situation? Can interest rates curb inflation? We should say that we must not look at the current inflation in a simple and isolated way, but we must analyze it in a certain historical background. In addition to the CPI (consumer price index), GDP deflator is also a common indicator of inflation, and the measurement of this index is more scientific. By this measure, the inflation rate in China from 2004 to 2010 was 7.61%, 4.09%, 3.64%, 8.79%, 8.78%, -0.6% and 5.84% respectively. Visible, in these 7 years, besides 2009, our country is in moderate inflation all the time. In addition, in the past 7 years, in addition to 2009, the actual interest rate for one-year deposits in the remaining 6 years was negative. In our case, the occurrence and persistence of inflation has its reasons: negative interest rates in excess money supply and long time significantly push up the price of real estate, real estate prices in the city residents of the lowest cost of living increases, city residents minimum living costs rise and the lowest income rise, and city residents of the lowest income rise means of rural labor and rural labor opportunity cost, opportunity cost and forced rising prices of agricultural and sideline products. If the price of agricultural and sideline pro