外汇储备对我国货币政策影响的分析.pdfVIP

外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响分析 中文摘要 外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响分析 中文摘要 外汇储备作为连接一国本外币政策的关键因素，体现并制约着该国货币政策的有 效性和独立性。近年来，我国外汇储备迅猛增长，给我国的货币政策运行以及整体经 济都造成了极大的影响。 本文在总结国内外相关理论及研究成果的基础上，回顾我国外汇储备的发展历 程，深度剖析我国高额外汇储备的成因，进而从规范和实证分析两方面讨论外汇储备 对货币政策影响。本文规范分析中首先解释了外汇储备对货币政策各环节影响的一般 理论机制，并从我国货币政策的实际运行情况出发，详细描述我国持续增长的外汇储 备给我国货币政策带来的困境：外汇储备增长改变了我国基础货币的投放，增强了货 币供给的内生性，缩短了货币供给的时滞，同时造成政策工具的操作受限，货币政策 最终目标偏离。本文通过VAR 模型、脉冲响应函数和Granger 因果检验得出实证结 论：外汇储备变动对于货币政策中介目标——货币供应量有着显著、直接的正向作用， 对货币政策最终目标——汇率、物价水平和经济增长只存在间接的传导影响且程度有 限。为了缓解外汇储备带来的不利影响，本文建议应深化外汇管理体制改革，完善货 币政策调控体系，并从根本上推动我国产业结构升级，改变我国的经济增长模式，从 而促进我国经济持续健康的发展。 关键词：外汇储备 货币政策 货币供应量 VAR 模型 作 者：茹 薏 指导教师：万解秋 I Abstract Research on the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Monetary Policy in China Research on the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Monetary Policy in China Abstract As the key factor, foreign exchange reserves both reflect and restrict the independence and effectiveness of this country’s monetary policy. Chinas foreign exchange reserves which had a rapid growth in recent years have caused great influence on our countrys monetary policy operation and the overall economy. On the basis of relevant theories and research results at home and abroad, this article reviews the development course of Chinas foreign exchange reserves, analyzes the deep reasons of high foreign exchange reserves in our country, and then discuss its impact on monetary policy in both theoretical and empirical methods. In the part of theoretical analysis, this paper firstly explains the theoretical mechanism of the foreign exchange r