概率Probability.pdfVIP

6 Probability The true logic of this world is in the calculus of probabilities. -James Clerk Maxwell 6-1 Chance and likelihood Chance is a word which is in common use in everyday living. The radio 6-1 Chance and likelihood reports speaking of tomorrows weather may say: There is a sixty percent chance 6-2 Fluctuations of rain. You might say: There is a small chance that I shall live to be one hundred years old. Scientists also use the word chance. A seismologist may be 6-3 The random walk interested in the question: What is the chance that there will be an earthquake 6-4 A probability distribution of a certain size in Southern California next year? A physicist might ask the ques- tion: What is the chance that a particular geiger counter will register twenty 6-5 The uncertainty principle counts in the next ten seconds? A politician or statesman might be interested in the question: What is the chance that there will be a nuclear war within the next ten years? You may be interested in the chance that you will learn some- thing from this chapter. By chance, we mean something like a guess. Why do we make guesses? We make guesses when we wish to make a judgment but have incomplete infor- mation or uncertain knowledge. We want to make a guess as tp what things are, or what things are likely to happen. Often we wish to make a guess because we have to make a decision. For example: Shall I take my raincoat with me tomorrow? For what earth movement should I des