古建筑火灾风险定量分析.docVIP

古建筑火灾风险定量分析 田水承 张成镇 任国友 西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院 中国劳动关系学院安全工程系 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 为精确了解古建筑火灾的风险情况, 通过统计我国近65年来的165例古建筑火灾案例, 分析古建筑火灾的事故特征, 在此基础上, 建立事故树模型。采用统计、专家评分的方法获取基本事件的发生概率, 然后计算出基本事件的临界重要度系数进行比较, 发现古建筑火灾的发生与季节、省份存在关系, 古建筑火灾的防治应该从原因事件的预防、火灾发生后的扑救、加强监管及消防投入等方面着手, 对于临界重要度系数大的基本事件应该着重管理。事故树定量研究可以为古建筑火灾的防治提供更加科学合理的建议。 关键词： 古建筑; 火灾事故特征分析; 事故树模型; 临界重要度系数; 作者简介：田水承 (1964—) , 男, 山东淄博人, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事安全应急管理研究; 作者简介：张成镇 (1992—) , 男, 江西九江人, 在读硕士研究生; 作者简介：任国友 (1969—) , 男, 黑龙江大庆人, 教授, 主要从事应急管理、石油化工事故风险分析研究。 收稿日期：2017-04-05 Quantitative Analysis of Fire Risks of Ancient Buildings TIAN Shuicheng ZHANG Chengzhen REN Guoyou College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xian University of Science and Technology; Department of Safety Engineering, China Institute of Industrial Relations; Abstract： In order to accurately understand the risk of ancient building fires, an incident tree model is established on the basis of the statistics of 165 ancient building fires in China in the past 65 years and the analysis of the characteristics of ancient building fires. This model applies statistical, expert scoring methods to obtain the occurrence probability of basic events and calculate the basic event criticality coefficient. The relationship between the occurrence of ancient building fires and the season, the province is found with comparison. Therefore, fire prevention and control measures of ancient buildings shall include prevention of event causes, post-fire remediation, strengthening supervision and installing enough fire control system and top management priority shall be given to basic events with high criticality coefficient. The quantitative research of incident tree can provide more scientific and reasonable suggestions for the prevention of ancient building fires. Keyword： ancient building; fire accident characteristic analysis; incident tree model; criticality coefficient; Received： 2017-04-05 0 引言 古建筑是人类重要的物质遗产,