中美两国石油供应风险对比研究及启示.docVIP

中美两国石油供应风险对比研究及启示 李鹏远 周平 齐亚彬 唐金荣 中国地质调查局发展研究中心 中国地质大学(北京) 中国地质科学院国家地质实验测试中心 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 中美两国位列全球前两大石油消费国, 近年来美国得益于页岩气革命, 石油的自给率不断增加, 而中国的石油自给率不断下降, 对外依存度不断攀升, 因此对比分析中美两国的石油供应风险, 有助于中国识别石油供应风险点。基于亚太能源研究中心提出的能源安全“4A模型”, 构建了石油的供应风险评价模型。评价结果显示, 2000年以来, 中国的石油供应风险总体高于美国。中国的石油供应风险短暂下降后开始上升, 一直保持在较高水平。美国的石油供应风险在2008年之后开始大幅下降。中国的石油供应风险主要集中在可利用性和可获得性方面, 而美国的石油供应风险则集中在可利用性和可接受性方面。 关键词： 石油供应; 供应风险; 指标体系; 中国; 美国; 作者简介：李鹏远 (1985-) , 女, 博士, 主要研究方向为矿产资源战略;E-mail:hdlipengyuan2008@126.com。 作者简介：周平 (1981-) ;男, 博士, 副研究员, 主要研究方向为资源战略, E-mail:zping@。 收稿日期：2017-03-10 基金：中国地质调查局项目资助 (编号:D Comparative analysis and inspiration of the oil supply risk between China and the United States LI Pengyuan ZHOU Ping QI Yabin TANG Jinrong Development and Research Center, China Geological Survey; National Research Center for Geoanalysis, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences; Abstract： China and the U.S.are the two largest consumer countries in the world.It benefited from the shale gas revolution in the U.S.in recent years, the oil self-sufficiency increases continuously.While the oil self-sufficiency rate of China has continuously dropped, the crude oil external dependence was increasing.Thus this paper makes a comparative analysis of the oil supply risk between the U.S.and China, aiming to identification of the oil supply risk point of China.Based on the energy security 4 A model proposed by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center, we built up the risk evaluation model in the oil supply.The results show that Chinas oil supply risk is generally higher than the US since 2000.Chinas oil supply risk began to rise in a short period of 2000 to 2002, has been maintained at a high level.The oil supply risk of the U.S.began to decline significantly after 2008.Chinas oil supply risk is mainly concentrated in the availability and accessibility, while the oil supply risk of the U.S.is concentrated in availabilit