不利天气下城市道路网离散化动态交通供需关系分析-analysis on the relationship between supply and demand of discrete dynamic traffic in urban road network in adverse weather.docx

经验数据的 Bootstrap 方法分析模糊道路网容量可靠性，依据经验给出模糊 变量的区间，比给出隶属函数的形式及其参数更符合交通管理的实践需要。 不利天气的信息发布对道路网交通分配结果具有重要的影响，分析不利 天气下居民出行路径选择的影响因素，将居民路径选择行为分为固定路径出 行和受信息影响出行两种准则，并依据“交通信息诱导化程度”将受信息影 响出行分为具备完全信息出行和具备部分信息出行两部分。由此，建立考虑 信息诱导的变分不等式动态交通分配模型，并采用逐次混合平衡分配算法进行交通分配。最后，论文以哈尔滨市的实际调查数据，运用上述理论模型和方法，进 行局部道路网动态供需问题的分析。结果表明在具备相关的调查数据情况下 论文具有可操作性，并可以为不利天气下的城市道路交通管理与诱导提供数 据支持。关键词城市交通；道路网；不利天气；道路网容量；容量可靠性AbstractWith the steadily rapid development of urbanization in China, all kinds of precipitated disasters emerge frequently. How to deal with complex disasters is a urgent question needed to be answered. Adverse weather account for 15% of the whole year weather condition, and it has influence on traffic supply and further lead to decrease of road capacity and visibility. At the same time, traffic demand is also influenced leading to changes in travel time, travel manner and route selection. As can be seen that adverse weather make it worse for the relation between traffic supply and traffic demand in the urban road network. Scientific and systematic researches on the influence of adverse weather to urban road traffic surely have significant theoretical meaning and practical value. This paper researches on the influence of adverse weather to urban road traffic. Based on current theory, new concepts and models were put forward and demonstrated, and relative algorithms are also elaborated. The content of this paper are shown as follows:The concept of discrete dynamic road network capacity in adverse weather is defined and the time measure is selected. Based on division of basic components of road network the capacity based calculative model similar to spatio-temporal dissipation is put forward. Illumination was given for two variables in the model that are traffic capacity and average trip distance. Radial Basis Function Neural Network was applied to dispose the relationship between traffic capacity and many non-linear influencing factors under adverse weather. Based on probability and statistics