项目管理英文资料.ppt

Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Inputs to Risk Quantification Stakeholder risk tolerance More capital to expend; perceptions of severity Sources of Risk Potential Risk Events Cost Estimates Activity Duration Estimates Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Tools Techniques for Risk Quantification Expected Monetary Value – product of 2 numbers Risk Event Probability – estimate that event will occur Risk Event Value – estimate of gain or loss Statistical Sums – calculate range of total costs from cost estimates for individual work items Simulation – representation or model; provide statistical distribution of calculated results. Monte Carlo, Critical Path, PERT techniques Decision Trees – depicts key interactions among decisions and possible outcomes Expert Judgment Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Outputs from Risk Quantification Opportunities to pursue; threats to respond Opportunities to ignore; threats to accept Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Risk Response Development Defining enhancement steps for opportunities and responses to threats Avoidance – eliminating threat by eliminating the cause Mitigation – reducing expected monetary value of event by reducing the probability of occurrence Acceptance – accept the consequences (active - contingency plan - or passive response) Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Inputs to Risk Response Development Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond Opportunities to ignore, threats to accept Tools Techniques for Risk Response Development Procurement – acquire resources (exchange 1 risk for another) Contingency Planning – defining action steps should a risk event occur Alternative Strategies – change planned approach Insurance Chapter 11 – Project Risk Management Outputs from Risk Response Development Risk Management Plan – document procedures to manage risk events. Addresses risk identification and quantification processes, personnel responsible for managing areas of risk, maintenance of identification and