时间序列趋势研究及其在预防性维修中的应用-research on trend of time series and its application in preventive maintenance.docxVIP

AbstractMostlymodernpreventivemaintenancebasedonRCM（ReliabilityCenteredMaintenance）analysismethodorsimplycyclemaintenance.DomesticenterprisesareoftendifficulttogettheprobabilityofequipmentfailurewhenusingRCManalysismethod,theyusuallyuseoutsidedatabase.Andplanmaintenanceiseasygettingexcessmaintenance.Therefore,thispaperdesigneddynamicpreventivemaintenancemanagementsystem,focusontheoperationtrendsofeachequipment,usinglogicaloperationswithotherconditions,todeterminewhethertheequipmentneedtopreventivemaintenance.Thepaperintroducedtheresearchstatusoftrendsanalysisalgorithmsandpreventivemaintenance.Usingsimplelinearregressionalgorithm,ARmodel,Sen’sslopeestimationandMann-Kendalltoanalyzethetrendoftheequipmentoperation.TochoosewhichalgorithmissuitforthissystemTheresultisthattheSen’sslopeestimationandMann-Kendallalgorithmaresuitforthesystem,Sen’sslopeestimationisusedtocalculatethechangerateofamplitude,Mann-Kendallalgorithmisusedtoanalyzetrend,toanalyzemutation,toanalyzesaliency.Finally,finishthedynamicpreventivemaintenancemanagementsystem,andapplySen’sslopeestimationandMann-Kendallalgorithmtothissystem.PracticalapplicationshowsthatSensslopeestimationandMann-Kendallalgorithmhavewellresultswhentoanalyzeequipmentrunningtrend.Keywords:Trendanalysis;Preventivemaintenance;Sen’sslopeestimation;Mann-KendallII目录摘要...............................................................................................................................IAbstract.............................................................................................................................II第1章绪论..................................................................................................................11.1课题背景及意义...................................................................................................11.2设备维修的发展...................................................................................................21.3国内外研究现状......................................................................