基于主成分分析ga―bp模型在城市需水预测中应用.docVIP

基于主成分分析的GA―BP模型在城市需水预测中的应用 　　摘要：针对城市需水预测模型中需水量影响因子多、影响因子之间普遍存在多重共线问题，以及BP神经网络收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优等缺点，提出一种由主成分分析、遗传算法及BP神经网络三者相结合的改进预测模型。以泰州市为实例，建立以主成分分析筛选需水量主要影响因子，遗传算法优化BP网络连接权值和阈值的需水预测模型，预测结果与BP神经网络预测模型预测结果做对比。结果表明：改进预测模型对泰州市2003-2014年需水量预测的平均相对误差为0564%，最大相对误差为1681%，精度优于BP神经网络预测模型；改进预测模型预测值与实际泰州市需水量吻合良好且训练速度更快、预测精度更高，可作为需水预测的一种有效方法。 　　关键词：主成分分析；BP神经网络；遗传算法；GABP模型；需水预测 　　中图分类号：TV211文献标识码：A文章编号： 　2017 　　Abstract：There are too many impact factors of water demand in the urban water demand prediction model and most of the factors are multicollinearBesides，the BP neural network has slow convergence rate and easily gets into a local optimumTo tackle these problems，we proposed an improved prediction model by combining the principal component analysis （PCA），genetic algorithm （GA），and back propagation neural network （BPNN）Taizhou city was taken as a case for studyWe established a water demand prediction model that selects the main impact factors of water demand by principal component analysis and optimizes the connection weights and thresholds of the BP neural network by genetic algorithmThe BP neural network prediction model was set up as the contrast modelThe results showed that the average relative error and the maximum relative error of water demand prediction by the improved model inin Taizhou city were 0564% and 1681% respectivelyThe precision was superior to that of the BP neural network prediction modelThe results predicted by the GABP model matched with the actual water demand data of Taizhou city，and the model had faster calculation speed and higher precisionIt can be used as an effective method for water demand prediction 　　Key words： principal component analysis；BP neutral network；genetic algorithm；GABP model；water demand prediction 　　需水?A测是一个由区域总人口、产业结构、各产业发展水平、社会经济发展程度等共同作用的多因素、多层次复杂非线性系统[1]。现有的需水预测方法主要有粒子群算法、人工神经网络、灰色模型理论、小波神经网络、回归分析模型、支持向量机、随机森林模型等[29]，目前尚不存在公认的普适性预测方法。城市需水量是一个受诸多因素影响的变量，因其外生变量（城市人口、产业结构等）受人为规划和实践的影响，具有较强的不确定性和模