我国重要能源资源进口风险评价与渠道选择分析-risk assessment and channel selection analysis of import of important energy resources in china.docxVIP

Subject ：Study on Risk Assessment and Channel Choosing of Important Energy Resources Import in China Specialty ：Industry Economics Name ：HaBen （Signature） Instructor：Zhang Jinsuo ZhangWei （Signature） ABSTRACT Nowdays， the degree of dependence on foreign oil in China is always growing; natural gas and coals import quantity in our country is more and more， the energy risk is also becoming larger. So， systematically researching the energy import risk and ensuring the energy import security in China should be regarded as an urgent priority， while the research about energy import risk is a few， and more focus on the oil， there is little the study that place the coal， oil and natural gas and choosing-channel into an entirety. Tn view of this， the dissertation reviews systematically the domestic and foreign research， and studies the risk Assessment and channel choosing on important energy resources import in our country by theoretical and empirical， qualitative and quantitative analysis， the main results of the research are as follows: Based on analyzing the current import situation of three kind of important energy resources， the dissertation systematically sumrizes the main import source of three main energy and transport channel contained sea and land in our country; and chooses 31 main sources and 12 channels from them. These works play a fundmental role on the assement of important energy resource import risk and choosing channel in China. Tn this dissertation， based on the identifying and analyzing the main factors affecting source risk and channel risk， the risk assessment index system and model are separately set up and scoring criteria is certained by a formal discussion with experts， and the risk state of 31 major import sources and 12 transport channels are assesed with Matlab. Combined with evoluation results， this dissertation make suggestions on choosing channel of energy import in our country. Tncluding: Paying attention to cultivate and deepen energy co