我国汇率制度和利率市场化对人民币国际化的影响分析-analysis of the influence of chinas exchange rate system and interest rate marketization on rmb internationalization.docxVIP

摘要 摘要 I I 摘要 一国货币国际化必须要有国内发达的金融市场和合理的汇率制度作为支 撑，人民币国际化进程的加快对我国现行的汇率制度和国内金融市场提出了新 的要求。作为中国金融市场向纵深发展的利率市场化改革和 2005 年 7 月 21 日 形成的汇率制度有重要的研究意义。 本文的创新之处在于综合分析汇率制度和利率市场化对人民币国际化的影 响并提出政策建议。研究方法上结合理论分析和实证分析，先分析二者的现状 再分析对人民币国际化的影响，并提出政策建议。分析结果表明现行的汇率制 度偏于浮动，而现阶段利率市场化的利率与汇率联动效应很差。从而提出二者 对人民币国际化的有利影响都是减少了国际游资的流入或降低了国际游资流入 对汇率稳定的影响。不利影响方面，人民币国际化要求资本账户可兑换，而外 汇管制的放开会引起游资流入并增加了人民币升值的压力；利率市场化引发的 通胀问题在资本账户可兑换的情况下会影响汇率并使宏观经济政策两难；现阶 段利率汇率联动效应很差还限制了货币政策调节汇率的能力。 根据以上结论，本文对资本账户提出了有序开放和资本流入流出均衡管理 的政策建议，对汇率制度提出了进一步增加汇率弹性和市场机制的建议，对利 率市场提出了保持渐进性和多层次政策工具配合调节的建议，对人民币国际化 的路径提出了先区域化后国际化、先实现流通职能后实现储备职能的建议。 关键词：人民币国际化；现行汇率制度；利率市场化；资本账户 ABSTRACT ABSTRACT II II ABSTRACT One currency’s internationalization needs a developed domestic financial market and a reasonable exchange rate regime as support. Accelerating the process of RMB internationalization puts forward new requirements for current exchange rate regime in China and the domestic financial market. It’s very significant to research the exchange rate regime which formed on July 21, 2005 and interest rate marketability reform which is a further development of Chinas financial market. The innovation of this paper is the comprehensive analysis how the interest rate marketability reform and exchange rate regime affect RMB Internationalization, and make policy proposal. Research technique unifies the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis. First, analyze the current situation, second, analyze the impact on RMB internationalization, third, make policy proposal. The analysis result shows that both of the favorable factors for RMB internationalization is reducing the amount of international hot money inflowing and reducing the impact of international hot money inflowing on exchange rate stability. About the unfavorable factors, the liberalization of exchange controls cause hot money inflows and put RMB under the pressure of appreciation. Inflation caused by interest rate marketability reform will affect RMB ,and put monetary policy into dile