市场成长背景下经济周期微波化研究.docVIP

市场成长背景下经济周期微波化研究 　　摘 要：对OECD31个国家的实证分析进一步证明了经济周期微波化是所有经济发展、市场制度不断完善的国家的普遍趋势，其内在原因在于“市场成长”。将市场成长定义为“市场机制不断成熟，信息不对称的幅度不断减小”，可以很好地解释转轨国家经济周期的高位收敛趋势和发达国家经济周期的微波化趋势。因此，我们需要正确地理解“市场成长”，应将信息不对称的程度作为衡量市场成熟度的重要标准；同时，应坚持和加快市场化改革，以加快实现我国经济高位收敛、提高经济增长质量等经济目标。?? 　　关键词：市场成长；经济周期；高位收敛；微波化趋势；市场机制；信息不对称；转轨国家；发达国家?? 　　中图分类号：F037.1文献标志码：A文章编号：1674-8131（2011）03-0033-09?? 　　?? 　　??Research on Narrowing Fluctuation in Business??Cycle under Market Growth Background 　　LI Yong, WANG Man-cang?? 　　(School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xian 710069, China)?お? 　　Abstract: Empirical analysis based on 31 countries of OECD further indicates that narrowing fluctuation in business cycle is a universal trend for all countries with continuously developing of economy and perfecting of system and that its internal reason is “market growth”. Defining market growth as “continuously maturing market mechanism and decreasing magnitude of information asymmetry” can well explain high level convergence trend in business cycle in transition countries and narrowing fluctuation trend of business cycle in developed countries. Thus, we need to correctly understand “market growth” and take the magnitude of information asymmetry as an important standard to measure market maturity, meanwhile, we should stick to and accelerate marketization reform, in order to rapidly attain the economic goal of China’s economic high level convergence, improving economic growth quality and so on. ?? 　　Key words: market growth; business cycle; high level convergence; narrowing fluctuation trend; market mechanism; information asymmetry; transition country; developed country ?お? 　　 　　 　　一、引言?? 　　经济周期或经济波动问题一直是宏观经济研究的核心问题之一，熨平经济周期、保证国民经济健康可持续地发展也是政府宏观调控的一项主要任务。而事实上，不同国家的经济周期具有不同的表现，Lucas（1987）便指出了发达国家的经济波动率比发展中国家的要小。Kraay和Ventura （2001）从“比较优势”的角度解释了经济波动率在发达国家与发展中国家存在着显著的差异。刘树成（2006）在概述了中、美等国家的经济波动率后，提出经济周期的微波化趋势是一种普遍性趋势的猜想，但由于样本所限未能对该猜想进行很好的数据验证，也未能够对经济周期微波化的趋势进行理论探讨。?? 　　李勇（2010a，2010b）利用H-P滤波法对中国1952―200