影响农村消费收入结构效应分析.docVIP

影响农村消费收入结构效应分析 　　摘要:本文利用可同时讨论多个相互关联模型的似不相关回归(SUR)分析方法,以2000年―2006年我国31省市农村居民收入与消费的面板数据为研究对象,比较分析了工资性收入、家庭经营性收入、财产性收入以及转移性收入对农村居民七大类生活消费支出的影响。回归结果表明,工资性收入对农民住房支出和文教娱乐用品及服务支出影响显著;家庭经营性收入对农民食品、衣着、交通及通讯、医疗保健支出作用明显;转移性收入主要影响农民家庭设备用品及服务的消费支出。这一结果为决策层在启动农村消费,制定农民增收政策方面提供了可以参考的依据。 　　关键词:农民收入结构;农村消费;似不相关回归(SUR) 　　中图分类号:F323.8文献标识码:A 　　 　　 The Effect Analysis of Income Structure Impact on Rural Consumption 　　Ge XiaolinGuo Haixin 　　(The School of Economy Trade of Hunan University,Changsha Hunan,410079) 　　 　　Abstract: Adopting seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) analysis method which can discuss a wide range of interrelated models simultaneously, this paper takes rural residents’ income and consumption panel data which includes 31 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2006 as research object, comparatively analyses the impact of wage income, household operational income, property income and transfer income on seven major types of livelihood consumption. The regression results show that wage income has a great effect both on rural housing expenditure and cultural and educational entertainment supplies expenditures; household operational income significantly affects the rural consumption level of food, clothing, transportation and communication, medical and health care items; transfer income is the main driving force in promoting peasants to consume household appliances and services. The analysis will provide a basic reference for decision-makers to formulate policies on increasing the income and enlarging the consumption of peasants. 　　Key words: rural residents’ income structure; rural consumption; seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) 　　 　　随着金融危机的持续蔓延,对中国经济的负面影响日益加深,对农业农村发展的冲击不断显现,一直存在的农民增收难、消费低问题将会更加突出。新年伊始,中央发布题为《中共中央国务院关于2009年促进农业稳定发展农民持续增收的若干意见》的2009年一号红头文件,这份温暖亿万农民心的中央文件以促进农业稳定发展、农民持续增收为主题,也是中央决策层连续第六年将一号文件的落脚点锁定于“三农”领域,说明在国内外经济形势急转直下的情况下,稳定农业,增加农民收入,刺激国内消费,成为决策层维稳中国经济寄予厚望的政策取向之一。如何实现农民增收,扩大农民消费,进一步启动农村消费市场成为当前亟待解决的重中之重。 　　国内学术界对于农民收入与消费的问题有不少研究,刘建国(1999) [1]在弗