近53年湖南高温变化特征及其对农业影响.docVIP

近53年湖南高温变化特征及其对农业影响 　　摘要：利用1961 ― 2013年湖南74个气象观测站逐日高温观测资料，分析了湖南近53年的高温变化规律及其影响。结果表明，湖南大部分地区高温初日呈提前趋势，每10年提前2 d以上，并且呈现明显的年代际变化特征，21世纪以后高温初日提前明显；高温日数呈增加趋势，每10年增加2 d左右，湘北高温日数增加趋势显著；总体上湘中以南大部高温最长持续日数呈弱的减少趋势，每10年减少0.5 d左右，湘中以北则呈较强的增加趋势，每10年增加1 d左右。20世纪90年代以来，湖南高温天气显著增多、增强的同时，农业干旱灾害损失日趋严重。 　　关键词：高温；气候变化；农业干旱；湖南省 　　中图分类号：S162 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）04-0887-05 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.04.018 　　Changing Characteristics of High Temperature in Hunan Province during 　　the Last 53 Years and Its Influence on Agriculture 　　LUO Bo-liang，LI Yi-zhi 　　（Institute of Meteorological Science of Hunan Province/Key Laboratory of Preventing and Reducing Meteorological Disaster， 　　Changsha 410118， China） 　　Abstract： Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 74 stations in Hunan during 1961 ― 2013， the change rule of high temperature and its influence in Hunan during last 53 years were analyzed. The results showed that the beginning date of high temperature showed an advanced trend in most parts of Hunan with more than 2 d in advance every 10 years， and presents obvious interdecadal variation. Beginning date of high temperature was earlier obviously after 21st century. High temperature days showed an increasing trend and 2 d in advance every 10 years， which was more obvious in North of Hunan. High temperature maximum duration showed a weak decreasing trend in the south of central Hunan and reduced 0.5 d every 10 years， but which showed a strong increasing trend in the north of central Hunan and 1 d in advance every 10 years. Since the 1990s， high temperature in Hunan increased and enhanced significantly and the loss of agricultural drought disaster was increasingly serious. 　　Key words： high temperature； climate change； agricultural drought； Hunan province 　　IPCC（联合国政府间气候变化委员会）第五次评估报告指出[1]，1880 ― 2012年，全球海陆表面平均温度呈线性上升趋势，升高了0.85 ℃；2003 ― 2012年平均温度比1850 ― 1900年上升了0.78 ℃；1983 ― 2012年连续3个10年比1850年以来其他的任何10年都要暖，极有可能是近800～1 400年间最热的30年，近130年全球气候正经历一次以变暖为主