城市住宅价值分析及预测-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

The Research and Predication on Urban Housing Value M功or: Management Science and Engineering Name: Zhong ShiTou Tutor: Liu XiaoJun professor Abstract Urban housing which has been one of the most necessarily part in city system is a place which people can live in. It is impossible for the housing value existing without the intluence of the whole city system. Housing value will change wi也 city development，social reform，technology improvement，the change of human living style and the change of macro-econom?c siωation. This paper considers that housing value is consisted of location cost，agriculture chance cost， production ∞st，and housing exploitation profit. First，with a limitation of the ideal city suppositions，the paper establish the linear urban housing value function P = Po -k.x with city space distance as its independent variable; analysis the way some elements influence urban housing value，like dweller income，traffic cost，time chance value，public establishm巳nt，air pollution ，sound pollution ，inflation; and give deep research of the housing value in the marginal area of city. Then relaxing the limitation of the id巳aJ city suppositions and leaming from the urban economics research method that more care about the city space and lean on city 巳conomics development，the paper establish the non-linear urban housing value function P(x)=- t/i f.. ，dx，O x 三 a to figure out the housing price according to the city JH(x) social development level-housing value. lt irnproves the method 由at using the market housing price index to j udge whether the urban housing marketing is h四lthy. Then，the gray system theory has been introduced into the non-linear urban housing value function. It help to establish the GM (1， 1)-non-linear urban housing J三 value predicating model P(归/1ι缸， 0 ::; x ::; a . This model 叫川e action J H(x) of the non-linear urban housing value function. Its to direct the housing price in next yea民 but not to checkout whether the housing pr