人民币汇率波动与中国进出口贸易关系实证研究.docVIP

人民币汇率波动与中国进出口贸易关系的实证研究 　　摘要中国进出口贸易的分析与实证，对中国经济的发展与政府相关部门政策的制定有着重要的实用意义.实证分析了人民币汇率与中国进出口贸易的关系、以及中国进口贸易与出口贸易之间的相互影响程度.选择从1994～2017年这 24个年度的时间序列数据作为数据样本，基于EngleGranger协整分析理论分析变量间的协整关系，建立回归模型；通过格兰杰因果检验，分别阐述了中国出口贸易总额Y1、中国进口贸易总额Y2、人民币汇率X变量间的因果.引入商品?r格指数P，用于剔除通货膨胀带来的影响.实证分析结果表明：中国的进出口贸易总额与人民币汇率之间存在着单向的因果关系，且中国的进出口贸易总额的变化作用在人民币汇率的变化较为明显，而人民币汇率的变化作在中国的进出口贸易总额上的变化不太明显.贸易进口额变动对贸易出口额的影响结果大于贸易出口额变动对贸易进口额的影响. 　　关键词国际贸易学；人民币汇率；协整分析； 进出口贸易 　　中图分类号F74 文献标识码A 　　The Empirical Study on the Fluctuation of RMB 　　Exchange Rate and Chinas Import 　　and Export Trade Relations 　　Xueyan Zhao ， Guodong Li 　　（School of Applied Mathematics， Xinjiang University of Finance Economics，Urumqi，Xinjiang830012，China） 　　AbstractThe analysis and demonstration of Chinas import and export trade is of great practical significance to the development of Chinas economy and the formulation of relevant government policies. Empirically analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Chinas import and export trade and the degree of mutual influence between Chinas import trade and export trade. Selecting the time series data of the 24 years from 1994 to 2017 as data samples， based on EngleGranger cointegration analysis theory to analyze the cointegration relationship between variables and establish a regression model； Through granger causality test， the results show that the total value of Chinas export trade is Y1， the total amount of Chinas import trade is Y2， and the RMB exchange rate X variable is the cause and effect. The introduction of commodity price index P is used to eliminate the impact of inflation. Empirical analysis results show that Chinas total import and export trade and oneway causal relationship exists between the RMB exchange rate， and the role change of the total amount of Chinas import and export trade in the exchange rate change is more obvious， and the change of the exchange rate on Chinas import and export volume of change is not obvious. The effect of the change of trade i