发电商市场预测与竞价决策优化新方法研究技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学博士学位论文摘要AbStraCt 华北电力大学博士学位论文摘要 AbStraCt The paper∞searcheS the p加bl锄that how pOwcr gen啪tion compani船efI．cctive indentify柚d m柚agc the potential market risl【S b弱ed衄eIectricity market forcc鹤ts， 姐d avOid the 10豁， th盯eby erIlIancc tlle benef．t ability f如m competitiveness．The paper masters the OOrc of cle硎city market MCP，selects advanced anificial inteUigence combiIlati∞ forec弱ting methods to modcl孤d predict， tllus fo咖s a prccise predidion锄alysis system fbr gencrati∞companies in shon-tc瑚marl【et env的nm∞t．Then， the papcr builds illteUi星re】时optimizati衄model f幻m the aspects such as benefit， MCP，霉reneration and so 伽， b勰ed on孕oup decision-making algDfitllln optimization．0n this basis， draw On me theory of fin觚cial markct risk m趾agemem， the papcr qu卸titatively describes the risks in t量le eledricity market．(bmbined w“h compctiti、，c risl【s of powcr generation company， tlle p印盯quaIltities tlle鹤sessm锄ts．0n me mentioncd aboVe， the paper proposes the bidding decision-making Optimization model for星renemtion∞mpanies with a risk．control，and design pm舒舢ing 0ptimization algofimm． The main foundati衄the paper rclied彻is 0ptimized combillation forecast tllcory， inteUigent optimization computati∞thcory， the time s—es fofccast，and fin柚cial risk me鹅urement and managemem theory．This papcr wiU unify t量le newest achievement of these fIlndamental research鹳applied to the content whic：h tIlis papcr stlldy， 姐d aim at tlle special questions t0 ilnprove the relative theOry models and develop the connOtatiOn and the extension of these theory，and th蛐fom a complete sct of tlle eledricitV generati∞ companies bidding decisiOIH吡akillg optimizati∞theory based 0n MCP and short．te珊 market risks， 锄d pfovide p0啊豇g∞erati∞comp柚ies with theory instmction蛐d spccial analvsis tools fbf benetit maximization and risk avoidancc． The inllovation of the papcr is rcneded iIl t11e following aspeds： 1．A new load fofec勰ting model with single iIltclligent is buih．Whvelet neuml networks iIIlproVcd by gcnctic algOritllm， f