全球房地产市场透视.pdf

DB Real Estate Research Global Real Estate Insights April 12, 2005 Improving Fundamentals Versus Rising Interest Rates Table of Contents: Overview Overview 1 Introduction Asia Pacific 8 Real estate markets around the globe are running with significant tailwinds behind North America 17 them. Accordingly returns have been solid relative to alternative assets. Looking Europe 30 ahead, there is still upside, but as the cycle matures and interest rates nudge up, the headwinds will begin to build. Globally several common themes emerge: Occupier markets are generally improving, helped by sustained global growth. As the economic cycle matures the rate of growth is easing back; The period of very low interest rates has passed - rates are generally rising and credit will become less easy during the next year. Nevertheless, property income yields will retain a positive spread to interest rates; Investor inflows remain very strong - from leveraged private investors through to the big institutions. Moving forward the balance is likely to shift toward institutions as the benefits of leverage marginally diminish; The retail sector is out-performing the othe