基于DEA的艾滋病疗法有效性分析-运筹学与控制论专业论文.docxVIP

中文摘要本文运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法，分析了艾滋病医疗试验组织研究193A 中文摘要 本文运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法，分析了艾滋病医疗试验组织研究193A 中艾滋病疗法的有效性。在处理大量艾滋病疗法数据时，采用聚类的方法，得到 了两组意义不同的决策单元：在某个治疗阶段上，决策单元按患者的年龄段和使 用的疗法进行分组；对某个年龄段的患者，决策单元按使用的疗法和治疗阶段进 行分组。并构造了六个DEA模型分别对这两组决策单元进行了分析。 在某个治疗阶段上，根据年龄段和接受的疗法对艾滋病患者进行分组，得出 决策单元。运用三个DEA模型对四种艾滋病疗法在不同年龄段患者上的疗效进 行评价：基于输出的BCC模型给出了各决策单元的DEA效率；成本效率BCC 模型评价了各决策单元的成本效率；基于输出的间接BCC模型则在允许输入之 间替代的前提下，分析了各决策单元的效率。得到的优化输入让患者可以结合自 己的年龄来选择对自己最有效的疗法。 对某个年龄段的患者，根据其接受的疗法和治疗阶段进行分组，得出决策单 元。另外构造了三个DEA模型对四种疗法在四个治疗阶段的有效性进行了分析： ∥．机会约束随机BCC模型在分析各决策单元的效率时考虑了输出的随机性； DEA预测模型预测了各疗法下阶段疗效的走向；间接DEA预测模型则在允许输 入之间相互替代的前提下，预测了各疗法下阶段疗效的走向。得到了各年龄段患 者应该用哪种疗法治疗到哪个阶段，和下一阶段的治疗应该采用哪种疗法的结 论。 关键词：数据包络分析(DEA)，决策单元(DMU)，艾滋病疗法，成本有效， ∥一机会约束随机DEA有效 ABSTRACTThe ABSTRACT The paper used DEA method tO analyze the experimental data in Study 1 93A of 越ds Clinical Trail Group(ACTG)．A clustering method was used tO handle the large amount of experimental data，and two sets of DMUs were gained then：DMUs classified by patients’age and treatments within the same treatment phase；DMUs classified by treatments and treatment phases through patients of the same age． In a specified treatment phase，patients arc classified by their age and treatments to get the DMUs．Three DEA models arc utilized to analyze the efficiency of DMUs and we get the result that which treatment is efficient for which age group．The output-oriented BCC model analyses the DEA efficiencics；the cost efficiency BCC model gives out the cost efficiencies；and the indirect output-oriented BCC model allows some of the inputs tO increase while analyzing the DEA efficiencies．The optimal medicine amounts are then provided tO the AIDS patient for h血tO choose a treatment血at is most effective for his age． Among age—specified groups，patients arc classified by their treatments and treatment#ases to get the DMUs．Another three DEA models al e constructed to analyze the efficiency of DMUs．B-chance constrained stochastic BCCmodel considered the stochastic factor of the output data when analyzing the