交通建设项目的风险管理-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 本文对交通{建设项目的风险管理进行了较系统的分析。首先对风险 ； 的概念进行了界。定，并指出风险价值所在。然后，对交通建设项目的风 险因素按风险综合评估的需求综以分类，将其分为社会风险因素、自然 1 风险因素和经营管理风险因素等，概括性阐述了风险测度的基本方式和 指标：风险因素调查表，标准差及变异系数。随之，讨论了交通建设项 目的风险综合评估方法，主要是识别和度量项目风险，制定、选择和管 ＼? 一 理风险处理方案的过程。f其中重点讨论了风险识别过程和风险评估步骤 及综合评估模式。紧接着论述了交通建设项目的风险决策分析，进行了 原理介绍并举例说明了矩法和风险报酬法在风险分析中的应用，并且详 细介绍了多阶段{风险决策分析法。其中的矩法包括正态分布图象法和决 策树法，论文中·对这两种方法的步骤及各自的特性，并针对工程实践运 用作了分析；风．险报酬法包括风险调整贴现率法和确定当量法，文章对 两种方法的基本思路进行了比较分析，并指出各自的优点及其局限性。 论文的最后一部分概述了交通建设项目的风险控制对策，讨论了风险控 制、风险自留和风险转移三种基 绍了风险控制处理选择判断方法 罗腊愀醐鼢和瞄阱介 关键词：交通建设项目；风险管理；风险分析 Abst Abst raot This paper，makes a systematic analysis on the risk management of c。mmunication-cf)nstruction-projec‘·A‘first,me。。ncep。。f。18k 28 defined,锄d the value of I‘risk is pointed． Second，the causes of risk of communication—construction—project are classified as the social，natural and operational causrs according the need of comprehensive evaluation and the basic means or indexes of risk measurement are expounded．Third，the paper discusses the comprehensive evaluation means about the risk of communication-construction—project．It is mainly about the process of discern and measure the risk of projects and how to formulate the risk preventive plan The process of discerning and measuring the risk is most important．Then，the ways of pplicy decision analysis about the risk of } communication—construction-project is discussed．In this part，the fundamental tenets and processes of several ways about risk analysis are clarified and some examples are given．The advantages and disadvantages of these ways are also discussed．At last，the paper summarizes the countermeasures about risk—prevention of communication—construction—project．Three forms of the fundamental countermeasures are put forward．They are risk-prevention， risk-preservation and risk-shift．The characteristics of these three countermeasures are also introduc印．Besides，the way of risk—prevention judgement is discussed． Key words communication—construction-project