不确定营收下大陆寿险市场进入之决策分析：竞争者存在下实质选择权法之应用.pdf

風險管理學報 第四卷 第二期 2002 年 11 月 Journal of Risk Management Vol.4 No.2 Nov. 2002 pp.61-86 不確定營收下大陸壽險市場進入之決策分析：競 爭者存在下實質選擇權法之應用* The Entry Decision in Chinese Life Insurance Market under the Premium Uncertainty: An Application of Real Options in Competitive Market ** *** 林達榮 (Tyrone T. Lin) 石東立 (Tung-Li Shih) 摘 要 本文旨在針對壽險業進入大陸壽險市場時，運用管理彈性策略於保單市場規 模為不確定下試圖求取最適進入門檻值，以及評估最佳的投資專案價值，以做為 壽險業者在進行大陸壽險市場投資時策略選擇之參考。全文以實質選擇權法運用 於壽險業進入大陸壽險市場策略模式評估準則參考之依據，並比較風險修正後淨 現值法與實質選擇權法之異同。同時亦考量壽險業面對大陸加入世界貿易組織前 後對投資計畫所面臨之影響，當競爭者存在下，如何提升服務品質以增加或穩定 市場佔有率，針對支付服務成本之時點不同對市場進入策略與專案價值所產生的 影響進行評估。 關鍵字：決策評估、進入策略、壽險市場、實質選擇權。 Abstract This paper is to evaluate the optimal threshold for premium uncertainty dealt with the entry strategy in insurance industry into Mainland China’s life insurance market. To price the optimal project value and to provide strategy manager for another decision way of thinking is the focal point in this paper. How to use real options approach for the entry model and to compare the differences between real options approach and risk adjusted net present value method is also mainly study in this paper. The effect for insurance industries meeting in different situations before and after Mainland China becoming a member of the World Trade Organization is discussed. When competitive firms joint into market, the existed firm promotes service quality in order to increasing or keeping the market share, and evaluates the effect on the project value under serv