哈尔滨市城市交通发展与对策研究-公共管理专业论文.docxVIP

j j j至：、韭：ji：ji：i：2 i譬：i：： 摘要 城市交通是城市的动脉，作为对国民经济发展具有全局性、先导性影响 的基础产业，是城市生存和发展的基本条件之一。近十年，哈尔滨市的城市 交通建设得到较大发展，但由于多种因素的影H|f!』，交通基础设施和交通服务 的供给仍不能满足需要，城市交通问题已成为制约经济发展和社会运行的突 出因素。 本论文查阅了大量的国内外文献，对城市交通发展的相对可达性理论、 可持续理论和交通需求管理理论作了评述。在此基础上，首先对哈尔滨市城 市交通的基本状况和存在的问题作了深入系统地分析，并利用弹性系数、二 元线性回归等模型对交通量增长进行相关分析和发展趋势预测。然后在参考 和借鉴国内外城市交通发展的历史经验的基础上，根据哈尔滨市城市总体规 划、城市交通现状和未来发展方向，运用系统工程原理和城市规划、交通工 程等方面的理论，提出了哈尔滨市城市交通发展战略和对策。为建立多层次 现代化综合交通系统，促进城市经济持续、稳定、协调发展，提供了依据。 关键词城市交通；发展；对策 哈尔滨T业人学公共管理烦士学位论文Abstract 哈尔滨T业人学公共管理烦士学位论文 Abstract Urban tramc iS the artery of city．Being basic industry that has overall and precursor influence the development of national economy．Urban tra侬c iS of the basic conditions of subsist and development of city．Atier the reformation and opening，urban traffic construction of Harbin achieves lot of development．But because of the influence by many faetors．the traI玎C infrasturucture and the supplement of the traffjc service still can’t meet the demand．The urban traffic problem has been a outstanding factor that resurrecting the operation of economy and society． In this paper I consult lot of documents at home and abroad．then commentary on the attainability theory，the sustainability theory and the traffic demand—control theory of urban traffic development．On the base of it，we make deeply systematic analysis the basic conditions and the existent problems of urban tramc of Harbin，and the elastic coiffeuse model and the binary linear regression model to make interrelated analysis and forecast developmental trend on the increase of traffic account．Then the base of referring to and drawing lessons from the history experience of the development of urban traffic at home and abroad，we the system congener principle，city planning and traffic engineering theories and S0 on，and put forward to the development strategies and countermeasures of urban tramc of Harbin according to the overall plan．the present situation urban traffic and future development tread in Harbin They provide the ba